Prognosticators

One week after a 7 Bcf weekly storage withdrawal shocked natural gas storage prognosticators, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported Thursday that 19 Bcf was injected into underground stores for the week ended July 28, reflecting a number that much of the industry had been expecting. The report allowed September natural gas to continue lower — a direction the contract had begun in Wednesday overnight trading on word that Tropical Storm Chris was still weakening.

The Energy Information Administration (EIA) shocked even the most veteran industry prognosticators Thursday, announcing an “incredibly bearish” 1 Bcf addition to natural gas storage inventories for Christmas week. The injection, which sparked questions about the report’s validity, sent February natural gas plunging lower Thursday to settle at $9.499, down 69.8 cents for the day.

Consumers are likely to see very little price relief next year, according to two industry prognosticators. Arlington, VA-based consulting firm Energy and Environmental Analysis Inc. (EEA) is predicting gas prices will average $9/MMBtu in 2006, while analysts at Raymond James & Associates say extremely bullish underlying fundamentals will keep prices between $9.50 and $10 next year.

Over the last decade of weekly natural gas storage reports, industry prognosticators have turned withdrawal/injection forecasting into a science, but since the Energy Information Administration (EIA) took over the survey from the American Gas Association in May 2002, the storage forecasts of 34 top firms, including five energy companies, 28 financial houses and one energy consulting firm, still have been off by about 13.2 Bcf/week on average, according to a new study.

Each week dozens of prognosticators toss out their predictions of the weekly gas storage change, the most significant piece of supply and demand information available in the gas market today. But it’s surprising to know that on average the predictions of 34 top firms, including five energy companies, 28 financial houses and one energy consulting firm, have been off by about 13.2 Bcf/week since the Energy Information Administration (EIA) took over the survey from the American Gas Association in May 2002.

Each week dozens of prognosticators toss out their predictions of the weekly gas storage change, the most significant piece of supply and demand information available in the gas market today. But it’s surprising to know that on average the predictions of 34 top firms, including five energy companies, 28 financial houses and one energy consulting firm, have been off by about 13.2 Bcf/week since the Energy Information Administration (EIA) took over the survey from the American Gas Association in May 2002.

Acting as contrarians to many energy prognosticators, Southwest Securities consultants said Tuesday that recent natural gas storage injections against the backdrop of significantly hotter weather than a year ago, and consequently, stronger power generation gas demand, imply “considerable” year-over-year weakness in industrial gas demand, and therefore, lower prices.

Acting as contrarians to many energy prognosticators, Southwest Securities consultants said Tuesday that recent natural gas storage injections against the backdrop of significantly hotter weather than a year ago, and consequently, stronger power generation gas demand, imply “considerable” year-over-year weakness in industrial gas demand, and therefore, lower prices.

Punctuating Monday’s 32.6-cent price slide, natural gas futures probed lower Tuesday, as traders initiated the session by demoting the market to its second straight gap-lower open. Prices shuffled lower throughout the morning, augmented by a boost of selling pressure, as the December contract broke beneath the $2.835 low from Oct. 24. However support held and the prompt month retraced a portion of those losses in the afternoon to close with a 4.2-cent loss at $2.88.