Moderate

If North American natural gas drillers continue to lay down rigs at a moderate pace, inventories and price supports should rebalance toward the end of 2009, Barclays Capital energy analysts said.

In expectation of “a return to moderate temperatures in its market area,” Transco said it will end Tuesday the Imbalance OFO that was implemented Sunday. A restriction on nominating due-shipper imbalance makeups also will be lifted, Transco said, but other scheduling restrictions currently in place will continue.

In expectation of a return to moderate temperatures in its market area early this week, Transco said it planned to end Sunday the Imbalance OFO that was implemented Thursday. A restriction on nominating due-shipper imbalance makeups also would be lifted, Transco said, but other scheduling restrictions currently in place will continue.

A majority of prices continued to drop Monday after more moderate weather showed up over the weekend in much of the East. The previous Friday’s 27.5-cent drop by January futures also contributed to the overall cash market bearishness.

Citing expectations of a return to moderate temperatures in its market area, Transco said it will end Tuesday the Imbalance OFO that was implemented last Friday. Transco also said the restriction on nominating due-shipper imbalance makeups will be lifted Tuesday, but other scheduling restrictions currently in place will continue. However, the pipeline added that a return to below-average temperatures in the market area is expected Thursday, and it will put another systemwide Imbalance OFO into effect that day. See the bulletin board for OFO details.

With the post-weekend burst of cold in much of the East expected to begin fading Wednesday in some sections and relatively moderate conditions expected during the Thanksgiving holiday weekend, prices fell at all points Tuesday. The 40.8-cent expiration-day spike by December futures a day earlier proved unable to sustain the post-weekend rally in most of the cash market.

This week’s overall cash market rally was running out of steam for the most part Wednesday as mostly moderate weather and brimming storage facilities took their toll on the majority of prices. However, most western points were able to rise due to rising heat levels in the desert Southwest, chilly weather in the Rockies and Pacific Northwest and the easing of some excess supply/storage constraints.

Most points kept falling Wednesday due to a prior-day screen plunge of 68.2 cents and unseasonably moderate weather continuing to prevail in many areas. Another bearish factor was the growing perception that Hurricane Gustav caused little significant damage to Gulf Coast infrastructure — either offshore or onshore — and restoration of shut-in Gulf of Mexico (GOM) production was under way and could be expected to ramp up fairly quickly.

The moderate earthquake that shook a width swatch of Southern California inhabited by more than 20 million people last Tuesday was felt throughout the region, but did little or no significant damage to the area’s energy and other infrastructures. Local energy utilities reported scattered outages but no major impact on the electricity and natural gas infrastructure. Caltech seismology experts placed the quake’s magnitude at 5.4 on the Richter Scale. By comparison, the 6.7 magnitude Northridge event of January 2004 caused widespread death, injury and damage to infrastructure. The quake was centered in the eastern part of the San Gabriel Valley near the Chino Hills, which is about 20-25 miles east of downtown Los Angeles and was described as a “shallow” temblor about seven miles below the earth’s surface. Southern California Edison Co., headquartered in Rosemead, CA, less than 15 miles from the presumed epicenter, reported scattered outages in about a half dozen communities closest to the quake’s center. Subsequently, Edison did report a fire in a La Habra substation that is within a few miles of the quake’s epicenter. Distribution problems were reported in the immediate Chino Hills-Pomona-Brea area in the far eastern end of Los Angeles County caused by the power lines swinging together and touching. At least one fire in a local distribution substation was also reported. The Los Angeles Department of Water and Power and Los Angeles-based Southern California Gas Co. reported no problems.