Moderate

Moderate warming trends in parts of the Midwest and Northeast, along with Friday’s 13.3-cent uptick by July futures and the return of industrial load from its typical weekend decline, propelled the cash market to gains at a large majority of points Monday.

July natural gas futures slumped Friday as forecasts called for moderate temperatures to envelop eastern and Midwest energy markets. A weaker petroleum complex also tugged prices lower. At the end of the day July natural gas closed at $12.625, down 17.3 cents from Thursday and 6.8 cents lower than the previous week’s finish.

The cash market used Wednesday’s expiration-day increase of 11.5 cents by June futures and moderate increases of cooling load in the South to range from flat to about 35 cents higher Thursday at most points in the Gulf Coast, Northeast and Midwest. However, mild weather in much of the West and excess supply issues resulted in sizeable price drops throughout the West and Midcontinent. Some western plunges exceeded a dollar.

The market extended its slide at most points Tuesday as declining cooling load in the West joined already moderate weather in much of the rest of the U.S. The previous day’s 14-cent drop by June futures contributed to Tuesday’s overall cash bearishness.

As a marketer had predicted the day before, cash prices dropped at nearly all points Friday. The softness was due to moderate weather conditions typical of a shoulder month being prevalent in most regions, Thursday’s nickel dip by May futures and the decline of industrial load during a weekend.

February natural gas futures continued to scout lower prices Wednesday as temperature forecasts continued to moderate and economy concerns ran rampant. The prompt-month contract put in a low of $8.090 before settling the day at $8.133, down 6.3 cents from Tuesday’s close.

Prices fell at nearly all points Wednesday, weakened by moderate weather forecasts in many areas and by the previous day’s 7.8-cent November futures drop. The roller-coaster ride continued in the Rockies market, which followed up Tuesday’s triple-digit spikes with Wednesday’s largest declines, although only Kern River and Northwest-domestic plunged by more than a dollar.

Unified price movement returned to the cash market Friday, and the direction was downward in a big way. Spot quotes bowed to relatively moderate late-summer weather trends in most areas (either existing or in the weekend forecast), prior-day futures weakness, the weekend drop of industrial load and new indications that little storage injection capacity remains with nearly two months left to go in the traditional injection season.

As expected, forecasts of moderate weather in most of the East, Pacific Northwest and West Coast along with the extra loss of industrial demand that accompanies a holiday weekend caused prices to range from flat to nearly 35 cents lower at most points Friday. Several scattered gains of up to about C15 cents kept mixed price movement in play as many traders made the customary early holiday-related exits from their offices.