Henry

The summer topic du jour in U.S. natural gas markets seems to be the long-awaited opening up of Marcellus Shale gas to major market centers around the country, with a big jolt coming from the opening of the large Rockies Express Pipeline to East-to-West volumes expected Aug. 1.

Today’s depressed global oil prices are not a deterrent for prospective buyers of future U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports because there is a developing diversity in worldwide pricing that looks to Henry Hub gas prices — not to oil — to price long-term LNG contracts, Sempra Energy senior executives said Thursday.

Robust production out of the Marcellus Shale is weighing on prices, causing Bank of America (BofA) analysts to doubt the staying power of their fourth quarter and 2014 price forecasts and prompting Bernstein Research to cut its 2013 forecast by 25 cents.

A heatwave in the Northeast in the middle of July led to regional wholesale gas and power price spikes, as well as near-record gas consumption by Northeast power generators. However, natural gas spot prices averaged $3.62/MMBtu at the Henry Hub during the month, marking a 21-cent decline from June, according to the Energy Information Administration (EIA).

With natural gas working inventories remaining near record highs through the end of November, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) expects the Henry Hub spot price to average $2.78/MMBtu this year, down from $4.00/MMBtu in 2011, before rebounding to an average of $3.68/MMBtu in 2013.

With natural gas working inventories remaining near record highs through the end of November, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) expects the Henry Hub spot price to average $2.78/MMBtu this year, down from $4.00/MMBtu in 2011, before rebounding to an average of $3.68/MMBtu in 2013.

Lower-than-expected natural gas inventories led Moody’s Investors Service to lift its assumptions for North American Henry Hub natural gas spot prices by 50 cents to $3.50/MMBtu in 2013 and $4.00/MMBtu in 2014 and thereafter. Prices sagged in recent years on the unconventional drilling boom and mild weather, which has led to an oversupply, but prices have climbed in 2012 on coal-to-gas switching in the power generation sector and hot weather, and as companies have scaled back their dry gas drilling, Moody’s said. Assumptions for natural gas liquids prices remain unchanged at $34/bbl in 2013, 2014 and thereafter, pegging prices at 40% of West Texas Intermediate prices.

The North America oilfield services market “eroded more than we thought” in 3Q2012, but the spending decline could turn in January, said the research team at Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. (TPH).

Fitch Ratings on Wednesday cut its U.S. natural gas price deck for 2012, with the base case Henry Hub (HH) price at $2.75/Mcf, on weak pricing and the prospects of an ongoing oversupply in the domestic markets.