Forecast

U.S. natural gas prices are looking weaker over the longer term, despite the recent rally, and the crude oil outlook, at least for now, is waning as well, energy analysts said Monday.

November natural gas futures were trading 6.5 cents lower at $3.219/MMBtu shortly before 9 a.m. ET Thursday as forecasters pointed to risks for long-range warmer trends in the latest guidance.

September natural gas futures were set to open Tuesday about 3.6 cents higher at around $2.977/MMBtu as overnight guidance continued to advertise hotter trends, potentially complicating efforts to shrink large inventory deficits.

Conditions in the ocean and the atmosphere, including an El Nino event in the Pacific Ocean, are conspiring to produce a less active 2018 Atlantic hurricane season than previously expected, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).

August natural gas futures were set to open Tuesday near even at around $2.863/MMBtu following Monday’s declines, with record-level production and expectations for recent summer heat to ease, keeping the bears in the driver’s seat for now.

The Mexican government expects domestic demand for natural gas to reach 8.32 Bcf/d in 2018 and hit 9.66 Bcf/d over the 15-year period from 2016, which works out to a compound annual growth rate of 1.6% a year, according to Mexico GPIcalculations.

February natural gas was set to open Monday about 3 cents higher at around $2.829, with the prompt-month finding support from colder changes to the medium-term weather outlook.

February natural gas was set to open about a penny higher Thursday at around $3.023 as the market turned its attention to the 10:30 a.m. EDT release of the Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) weekly storage inventory report.

The expiring January natural gas contract was set to open about 5 cents higher Wednesday at around $2.697 amid only small changes to forecasts calling for below-normal temperatures across much of the country the next 10 days and warming after that.