Focusing on weather and global warming trends and ignoring “black swans” — incidents that spike well above or below established trends — could blind investors and the energy industry to opportunities, according to Bethlehem, PA-based long-range forecaster Weather Trends International (WTI).
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Farmers’ Almanac: ‘Numbing’ Cold This Winter
Demand for natural gas and electricity could be high this winter if the predictions of the Farmers’ Almanac — which is calling for below-average temperatures across two-thirds of the country — prove to be accurate.
Futures Shave 33% of Value Since July 3, Settle Just Above $9
August natural gas futures continued lower Friday and ventured briefly below $9 for a second consecutive session before closing at $9.084, down 23.9 cents from Thursday and $1.486 lower than the previous week’s finish. Despite the month-long plunge, some traders are noticing some significant buying efforts as people attempt to bargain hunt.
High Gas Prices + Low Water Levels = $482M PG&E Rate Hike
Referencing the always combustible mixture of rising natural gas prices and below-normal water levels, Pacific Gas and Electric Co. (PG&E) late Tuesday announced it had filed with state regulators for a retail electric rate increase of approximately $482 million, or roughly 4.5%, effective Oct. 1. The San Francisco-based utility called the gas prices “skyrocketing” and the hydroelectric situation “lower-than-expected.”
WeatherBug Forecast: Above-Average Hurricane Season
While keeping the number of hurricanes it is forecasting below those predicted by several other weather prognosticators, forecasting network WeatherBug said it expects 10-12 named storms and an above-average Atlantic hurricane season.
WeatherBug Forecast: Above-Average Hurricane Season
While keeping the number of hurricanes it is forecasting below those predicted by several other weather prognosticators, forecasting network WeatherBug said it expects 10-12 named storms and an above-average Atlantic hurricane season, which kicks off this Sunday.
NatGas Futures Rebound 41 Cents as Crude Nears $130/bbl
After sinking below $11 and giving bears some glimmer of hope, June natural gas futures on Tuesday rebounded to record a high of $11.477 before closing out the regular session at $11.365, up 41.1 cents from Monday’s finish.
Transportation Notes
Because primary firm nominations through the Plymouth North Constraint Point for the Timely cycle of Thursday’s gas day were below the available capacity of 453,000 Dth/d, Northwest discontinued the Declared Deficiency Period for the point Thursday and said it would allow new nomination requests in the Evening and Intraday cycles up to 500,000 Dth/d. If primary firm nomination requests for Friday exceed 453,000 Dth/d, Northwest said, it will declare a new Deficiency Period for the remainder of the work, which it expects to complete that day. It plans to schedule up to Plymouth North’s design capacity of 553,000 Dth/d for Saturday.
Transportation Notes
Expecting linepack on its California Gas Transmission system to dip below minimum target levels Tuesday through Thursday, Pacific Gas & Electric issued a customer-specific OFO for Wednesday.
Industry Briefs
ConocoPhillips expects its 1Q2008 production to be “slightly below” 1.8 million boe/d following an unplanned shutdown at a nonoperated gas processing plant in the San Juan Basin, which was complicated by cold weather. Output in the final quarter of 2007 was 1.84 million boe/d. The Houston-based major issued an interim update ahead of the April 24 scheduled release of quarterly results. The producer noted that in the first three months of this year, the average price of natural gas climbed 19% from the same period a year ago while crude oil prices surged 69%. Henry Hub first-of-month prices in 1Q2008 averaged $8.03/Mcf, compared with $6.77 in 1Q2007. Gas prices in 4Q2007 averaged $6.97/Mcf. Realized domestic refining and marketing margins for 1Q2008 are expected to be “significantly lower” than margins in 4Q2007 because of the absence of a quarterly inventory benefit, higher crude costs relative to benchmarks and lower margins. Conoco said the prices for its “secondary products,” such as fuel oil, natural gas liquids and petroleum coke “did not increase in proportion to the cost of the feedstocks to produce them.” Debt balance for the major was estimated to be about $21.5 billion at the end of March. Stock repurchases in the first three months of this year were estimated at $2.5 billion.