Below

After slipping 2.5 cents Tuesday, the May natural gas futurescontract climbed back up to just below stubborn support at $2.19yesterday in tenuous trading ahead of the release of the AmericanGas Association (AGA) storage report. May finished the session up 3cents to $2.174.

Gas supply this year is expected to fall below last year’slevels and will struggle to meet projected demand, the IndependentPetroleum Association of America indicated in a report released toinvestors in New York yesterday. With the gas rig count down abouta third compared to 1998 levels, U.S. production is expected to bedown 1.2% this year to 18.75 Tcf, while gas imports are expected torise 2.7% to about 3.22 Tcf, and gas demand is expected to shoot up3.2% to 21.97 Tcf.

Avista Corp. of Spokane, WA, its first-quarter earnings pershare could fall as much as 15 cents per share below securitiesanalysts’ current consensus first quarter estimate of 49 cents pershare. However, CEO T.M. Matthews said the company is stillcomfortable with analyst expectations of earnings for the year ofbetween $1.55-$1.65 per share

The initial September aftermarket was both above and belowbidweek levels at various Eastern points Monday but decidedlystronger to the West. One trader found Southern California bordernumbers mostly in the mid $2.10s, nearly a dime above bidweekaverages. The situation was similar for Malin and the PG&Ecitygate, which got a little extra boost from a low-inventoryPG&E OFO (see Transportation Notes). “It’s hot here inCalifornia,” said a source, adding it seemed “like everybody wasout buying today.”

For the fifth Monday in a row the bears were dominant in the pitat Nymex as trade and speculative selling pushed natural gas down,effectively erasing gains registered on Friday. Most of the day’smovement happened on the open, leaving the August contract to tradein the mid $1.90s for the rest of the day before closing at $1.965,down 6.6 cents.

The April Nymex contract once again failed to break above majorresistance at $2.19 on Tuesday, and as a result, the spot monthfinished the day down 3.2 cents to $2.137. Total estimated volumecame in at 34,371.

The March Nymex futures contract fell another 1.9 cents to$2.198 Friday, as traders continued the falloff in prices theystarted on Thursday. “This was not a case of traders gunning forstops, where they try to push the contract under support hoping thecontract will fall even more. This was simply an extension ofThursday,” a broker said.

Few areas were getting below 32 degrees (F) Thursday, but cashprices seemed to be frozen in place everywhere. The market was muchlike the landscape around Houston, one source said: flat in alldirections.