Analyst

Fixing the current system of natural gas price reporting by trade publishers “has the greatest potential to restore confidence in the shortest period of time,” a report by Charles Schwab’s Washington Research Group concluded, but politicians, regulators, and a potential short-supply, high-price crisis could produce more drastic measures.

California’s long-time natural gas market analyst sees Rocky Mountain supplies and the expanded Kern River Pipeline as adding to new competitive capacity entering California, although there may be some excess capacity to market on a short-term basis due to delayed construction of new electric generating plants.

Mirant announced Tuesday that a previously planned conference call this week was cancelled until the company completes its 2002 audit and a reaudit of 2000 and 2001 financial statements. The announcement was made after the market had closed; Mirant’s stock closed at $1.62 on Tuesday.

The basis blow-out in the Rockies will narrow in the short term as Kern River pipeline’s 900 MMcf/d expansion goes into service May 1, but the situation may change beyond that as Kern River fills up and Powder River Basin production increases, according to attendees at a recent conference held by the Independent Petroleum Association of the Mountain States (IPAMS).

The United States is headed for a natural gas shortage that could last for the next five to seven years and substantially change the face of the energy industry, according to a new study by Andrew D. Weissman, publisher of Washington DC-based EnergyBusinessWatch (EBW).

Going against the grain and current consensus views, Raymond James analyst Marshall Adkins and his group said Monday that they believe natural gas prices will average $5/MMBtu next year, which would be about 50% higher than average 2002 prices and substantially higher than most, if not all, other gas price forecasts by analysts, consultants and the federal government.

Energy trading and marketing will come back, veteran energy analyst John Olson believes, and “I think E&P will be the sector driving the train.”

Energy trading and marketing will come back, veteran energy analyst John Olson believes, and “I think E&P will be the sector driving the train.”

The current level of volatility in the natural gas futures has some traders wondering if all that has happened is that one form of weather-induced volatility has been traded for another form or price hyperactivity.