Analyst

To energy analyst Marshall Adkins of Raymond James, it is becoming clear that the United States is facing a “major natural gas supply problem that is likely to lead to higher gas prices over the summer and a potential gas price explosion next winter.” Adkins, who last month had predicted a bullish first quarter sequential decline of 2% and year-over-year decline of 3%, said last week that not only is U.S. gas production falling faster than analysts first thought, but “the supply deterioration has been shocking even to us.”

In a regulatory U-4 filing last August to the National Association of Securities Dealers (NASD), a former UBS PaineWebber adviser based in Houston said he believes he was fired after he told some of his clients to sell their Enron Corp. stock. Chung Wu said in an Aug. 31, 2001 filing that he had sent an e-mail to more than 10 of his clients Aug. 21, 2001 voicing concerns about Enron’s future and advising them to sell. He was fired the same day.

Speaking at an analyst conference last week in Houston, Exxon Mobil Corp. Chairman Lee R. Raymond remained pessimistic about the development of a natural gas pipeline through Alaska. Backing the results of a preliminary study by Exxon Mobil, Phillips Petroleum Co. and BP Plc, the three largest lease holders along the North Slope, he said the future of an Alaskan pipeline still remains a long shot, due to the nature of natural gas volatility along with the overall cost of the enormous project.

Speaking at an analyst conference Tuesday in Houston, Exxon Mobil Corp. Chairman Lee R. Raymond remained pessimistic about the development of a natural gas pipeline through Alaska. Backing the results of a preliminary study by Exxon Mobil, Phillips Petroleum Co. and BP Plc, the three largest lease holders along the North Slope, he said the future of an Alaskan pipeline still remains a long shot, due to the nature of natural gas volatility along with the overall cost of the enormous project.

Although the nation needs to await the completion of a “full autopsy” on Enron Corp., an initial analysis using public financial documents shows that the Houston energy trading giant was marked by “income that seldom matched its cash flows,” according to Portland, OR-based energy economist Robert McCullough, speaking Friday to an industry conference in Seattle, WA.

Natural gas production may have peaked in the third quarter and could begin to show “meaningful declines” in the fourth quarter, suggesting that the potential “to begin shutting in some higher cost, short-lived production is very real and could further reduce U.S. production,”according to last Monday’s Stat of the Week by the Raymond James Energy Group. The analysts noted that the “surprisingly quick supply response strongly supports our long-term bullish outlook for equilibrium Henry Hub natural gas prices of $3-$5/MMBtu.”

Natural gas production may have peaked in the third quarter and could begin to show “meaningful declines” in the fourth quarter, suggesting that the potential “to begin shutting in some higher cost, short-lived production is very real and could further reduce U.S. production,”according to Monday’s Stat of the Week by the Raymond James Energy Group. The analysts noted that the “surprisingly quick supply response strongly supports our long-term bullish outlook for equilibrium Henry Hub natural gas prices of $3-$5/MMBtu.”

UBS Warburg analyst Ronald J. Barone said in a research note on Friday that he was once again “compelled” to lower his natural gas spot price forecast because of the continuing decline in gas prices and the rapid rise in gas storage levels.

Energy merchant and power generation company earnings could jump more than 30% in 2001, while earnings for integrated electric utilities could rise 12%, according to Steven Fleishman, head of Merrill Lynch’s global power and gas research group.