Analyst

The rumblings of a nasty gas market reversal can be heard loud and clear, said Lehman Brothers analyst Thomas Driscoll in a research note, predicting the current price collapse would continue into the summer.

The rumblings of a nasty gas market reversal can be heard loud and clear, said Lehman Brothers analyst Thomas Driscoll in a research note, predicting the current price collapse would continue into the summer.

Politics will be dictating much of what happens to the nation’s natural gas supplies in 2006 and beyond, according to veteran industry analyst John Olson. For instance, politics — rather than economics — will largely dictate whether the country gets a gas pipeline from Alaska, whether the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge is opened to exploration, and whether there will be LNG receipt terminals on either the West or East coasts or both.

While there will be “a lot of noise” on Capitol Hill in the wake of Hurricane Katrina, energy analyst Christine Tezak doubts there will be “substantive legislation” adopted to change the way domestic energy markets operate.

Natural gas prices, which reached a high of $12.25 in futures trading Wednesday, could hit $15/MMBtu by the end of December, predicted analyst Philip Verleger, a visiting fellow at the Institute of International Economics and former director of the Office of Domestic Energy Policy at the U.S. Treasury Dept.

A top energy analyst believes there’s a 60% chance that Congress will pass an omnibus energy bill this year, although she doubts that lawmakers will meet President Bush’s request for the measure to be delivered to him by Aug. 1 (HR 6).

ChevronTexaco Corp. set new records in the fourth quarter, nearly doubling net income from a year ago and beating analyst expectations. However, natural gas and oil output fell 9% globally, and most of the losses were blamed on U.S. asset sales and Hurricane Ivan shut-ins.

Lehman Brothers analyst Thomas Driscoll predicts that the cumulative amount of Gulf of Mexico gas production that may end up being deferred because of Hurricane Ivan could total 80-120 Bcf. There were indications on Monday that shut-in amounts could stabilized around 2.3 Bcf/d of gas and 480,000 bbl/d of oil until repairs to offshore pipelines and production facilities can be completed.

Results from a 43-company survey have led analysts at Southwest Securities to believe domestic gas production may actually show a sequential increase for the second quarter compared to first quarter levels, but still will be down sharply compared to levels during the same quarter last year. In contrast, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) predicts that production ended the quarter flat sequentially and year-to-year.