Flat to about 15 cents higher pricing in the West and at some points in the Gulf Coast and Midcontinent/Midwest markets was outweighed Wednesday by declines ranging from a little under a nickel to more than 30 cents. Northeast citygates took the heaviest hits as the eastern U.S. continued to see temperatures rise following a frigid holiday weekend.

Most of Wednesday’s modest price strength was at western points, where highs are expected to be limited to the 30s and 40s Thursday in much of the region and heavy snow is due in some mountain areas.

Because the new month begins Saturday following an industry holiday, Wednesday’s deals were for the Dec. 30-31 flow period. Thursday’s trading will cover swing supplies for Saturday through Monday.

Generally bearish weather forecasts extend into the weekend, and the usual industrial/commercial load loss associated with an extended holiday weekend will be in play, so most if not all points are likely to be softer Thursday. If expectations for Thursday’s storage report centering on a withdrawal in the 170s Bcf are met, that could a bullish influence considering that such a pull would more than double the comparable year-earlier volume. However, as at least one analyst has mused, with storage still near record levels, does a large pull really matter to the market anymore?

In a note reiterating his estimation of a 173-183 Bcf draw, Citigroup’s Kyle Cooper added, “As a reminder, each day is now becoming slightly longer. While historically each day until about the third week in January becomes colder, that is not far away either. The time for extended cold to significantly reduce these inventory levels is rapidly declining.”

To a Gulf Coast producer, prices look weak for a while longer, but he doesn’t expect any market routs. He noted that Henry Hub was trading around the $6.10-15 area in early Saturday-Monday deals done Wednesday afternoon, which would be only about a nickel lower than the daily average for Thursday-Friday. Lower Northeast temperatures will be averaging in the mid-40s this weekend, which is relatively mild for early January, he said, but that’s probably the warmest the area will be for some time.

For the most part, Northeast points saw a slight downward trend in January prices this week, the producer said. Basis for Transco Zone 6-New York City sank as low as plus 55 cents Tuesday — a huge comedown from the plus $3.80-4.00 numbers he was hearing last week.

A Midwest marketer said temperatures had gotten quite a bit warmer than they were during the weekend, even if that meant mercury levels were only up into the 30s. “We’re certainly pleased that January futures came all the way down to $6.213 at settlement,” nearly $1.80 less than where December had closed out, she said. One of her company’s customers started to hedge their supply costs this month due to the storage/futures debacle during the December bidweek, “but that’s not such a good idea” now that prices are falling, she said.

The National Weather Service predicts below normal temperatures in the Jan. 3-7 workweek almost everywhere west of a curving line from northwest Minnesota to central Texas. The exceptions where normal conditions are expected are a coastal sliver of central California and an area that encompasses western New Mexico and eastern Arizona and extends into southeastern Utah and southwestern Colorado. Above normal readings are anticipated in the Southeast, including an extension through West Virginia into southwestern Pennsylvania.

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