Production in the Permian Basin will likely decline through the year but then begin to increase through at least 2026, even if prices do not rise significantly, according to analysts.

Permian oil and gas production

“We see the Permian as a relative winner among domestic basins given favorable production economics, independent of a call on higher commodity prices,” the Morgan Stanley analysts said in a note Tuesday.

Production will likely fall this year to 4.3 million b/d from 4.7 million b/d in 2019. However, from 2021 to 2023, production should increase each year by single-digit percentage rates to reach 4.8 million bl/d, analysts said. In 2024, Permian output could reach its previous peak production of 4.9 million b/d, with out put in 2025-2026 growing to about 5 million b/d.

Breakeven prices in the...