An updated tropical outlook issued by WSI Corp. trims the number of storms forecast, with 14 named storms, six hurricanes and three intense hurricanes (Category 3 or greater) predicted. The Andover, MA-based provider of weather-driven business solutions had previously forecast 15 named storms, eight hurricanes and four intense hurricanes (see Daily GPI, June 27).

The numbers are still larger than the long-term averages of 9.6 named storms, 5.9 hurricanes, and 2.3 intense hurricanes, and also larger than the numbers from 2006, WSI said. The main drivers of the expected active season are a continuation of the warm tropical Atlantic Ocean temperatures and a relatively benign vertical wind shear environment due to a lack of an El Nino event.

“The tropical Atlantic Ocean temperature anomalies have remained cool into July, relative to recent years, and now compare best to 2000 and 2002,” said WSI seasonal forecaster Todd Crawford. “Because the ocean temperatures have not yet rebounded from the significant drop in late spring, we have decided to reduce our forecast numbers slightly. However, both 2000 and 2002 were active seasons, and we continue to expect an active season, relative to both 2006 and long-term averages. Finally, our seasonal temperature forecast is now less bullish on late-summer heat in the Southeast, with the subtropical ridge migrating farther to the north than originally expected. Because of this, we feel that the general threat to the western Gulf is reduced slightly, with a corresponding increase in the threat to the eastern Gulf and Florida.”

In a separate report issued this week, WSI predicted a mix of warm and cooler air over different portions of the country, likely to result in neutral to bearish energy prices through October (see Daily GPI, July 24).

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