Reacting to a string of super-healthy storage refills and forecasts of a cool summer in the eastern and midwestern population centers, July indexes dropped between 25 and nearly 70 cents/MMBtu from the prices recorded by NGI in the June bidweek. The Henry Hub came in at $5.29 in the monthly numbers released last Tuesday, or 67 cents under the June quote of $5.96.

The month-to-month fall-off conformed to the Nymex futures contract which dropped 47 cents on expiration day June 26 to close at $5.291, down 65.4 cents from the June contract’s final resting place of $5.945.

The price drops were the most marked, from 40 to 60-plus cents, along the Gulf Coast and in the Northeast and Midwest. At Rockies and California points, which have seen higher summer temperatures, the drop-off was considerably less, generally hovering between 25 and 35 cents. Nevertheless, prices to California still were well under those for gas going to the Midwest and Northeast.

Regional average prices reported by NGI were: California $5.25, down 35 cents; Rockies $4.63, down 29 cents; Midwest $5.57, down 54 cents; Northeast $5.76, down 64 cents; Louisiana $5.29, down 63 cents; South Texas $5.16, down 63 cents; East Texas $5.29, down 57 cents; and West Texas $5.14, down 34 cents.

The national spot gas average for July reported by NGI was $5.26, down 50 cents from June 1.

July’s downturn marks a sharp reversal from June, when index gains from the previous month were nearly a dollar at most points. The June strength was largely derived from a prompt-month futures advance exceeding 80 cents, but it also was in an atmosphere of greater concern over filling storage by the winter season. A string of 100 Bcf-plus injection reports during June helped alleviate some of that concern.

NGI’s Bidweek Survey introduced a new feature July 1, assigning the pricing points to tiers to reflect the amount of trading activity. Major points such as the Chicago citygate, Southern California border, PG&E Citygate, Henry Hub, Columbia Gas (Appalachia) and Transco Zone 6 NY were among the 30 points rating in the Tier 1 category with volumes of more than 100,000 MMBtu/d. That is 50% greater than the 20 points which fell into that category in a trial run NGI did in-house of the June bidweek.

Tier 2 with volumes over 25,000 MMBtu/d and Tier 3 with less than 25,000 MMBtu/d claimed and 20 and 21 points respectively. There continue to be a handful of points where no trading activity was reported, which were recorded as blanks.

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