North American natural gas markets face the risk of oversupply in 2024 if winter comes in mild amid prodigious production gains. However, the gates are set to swing open for surging LNG exports in 2025 that could support prices out to 2030, analysts said.

Lower 48 gas in storage is amply supplied ahead of winter, with a surplus of 183 Bcf to the five-year average after the latest injection for the week ended Oct. 20. Production notched a new record around 104 Bcf/d a week ago, keeping a leash on New York Mercantile Exchange futures from straying far from the $3.000/MMBtu level.

“From a near-term perspective, we’re on a little bit of a rollercoaster ride where, provided a warm winter shows up, prices are going to have to get worse before they get better,” said East Daley...