Boosted in part by the prospect of a colder temperature shift around the start of the new year, natural gas futures surged higher in early trading Monday. The January Nymex contract was up 10.1 cents to $2.692/MMBtu at around 8:45 a.m. ET.

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Compared to previous expectations, the weather outlook was largely unchanged early Monday, according to Bespoke Weather Services. 

However, recent runs of the American modeling were “attempting to develop” a negative Eastern Pacific Oscillation that “would signify colder risks as we reach the turn of the new year,” the firm said. The European model “is not in this camp as of right now, though it still indicates variability is in play, as opposed to the big warmth we have seen for most of the season so far.”

Bespoke attributed...