After weathering the extended cold chill over the second half of January, it appears that at least part of the country is not out of the woods yet as another cold front is bearing down in some areas of the East. The National Weather Service’s 8-14 day outlook as of Feb. 7 called for normal to below normal temperatures across the East and Midwest, while the Southwest is expected to register above normal temps.

While acknowledging that warmer air streamed from west to east across the country during the past few days, reaching the central U.S. late last week and the East Coast by Sunday, Salomon Smith Barney Meteorologist Jon Davis said there will be a bias of cooler than normal temps in the eastern U.S. and a bias of warmer than normal temps in the western U.S. in mid-February.

Similar to Davis’ outlook, weather forecaster WSI Corp. for February looks for warmer-than-normal temperatures from the Rocky Mountains westward, along with the northern Plains. The warmest temps, relative to normal, are expected in the Pacific Northwest and northern California. Below-normal temperatures are expected east of a line from Texas to Wisconsin, with the largest anomalies in the Southeast and Florida.

Davis pointed out that temps on Saturday and Sunday (Feb. 1-2) were above normal in virtually every major population center across the country, which is something that had not occurred since early January. “The overall pattern during the next 10-13 days will feature troughing over the eastern US and ridging over the Far West,” the SSB weather forecaster stated in his weather update. “The pattern, however, will not be as strong, as entrenched, or as locked in as the pattern was during the final three weeks of January.”

He noted that there will be a lot more variability in day to day temperatures because they will not be as extreme nor as consistent as those in January. Davis explained that there will be two separate arctic airmasses which will be moving down into the eastern U.S. The first will move initially into the central U.S. early this week and make it to the East Coast by the middle of the week, while the second will flow into the central U.S. over the weekend and then into the eastern U.S. early next week.

“These airmasses can be termed weak to moderate which is different than the strong arctic airmasses which moved through during the middle of January,” Davis said. “For example, the final major arctic airmass which moved into the central/eastern U.S. during the third week of January was 1054 [millibars] when it moved into North Dakota. The two airmasses moving in during the next week will be around 1040 mb. In the world of barometric pressure, this is a major difference — the difference between weak and strong.”

Beyond the next week, temps over most of the central and eastern U.S. will average out to be close to normal. Davis said there will be some intense arctic air across the eastern portion of Canada, but the bulk of this bitterly cold air will remain north of the border rather than surging into the eastern U.S., because it lacks an atmospheric mechanism to force the core of the cold air down into entire eastern half of the country.

“Some areas such as the northern Great Lakes and northern New England may, at times, get influenced by this arctic air over eastern Canada but most of the central/eastern US will not be influenced by it,” Davis said.

Looking over the next three months, WSI Corp. said it expects the period to be cooler-than-normal in the southern tier of states from the central and southern Rockies across the central and southern Plains to the Southeast and mid-Atlantic states, covering cities such as Phoenix, Tucson, Denver, Dallas, Houston, Little Rock, Kansas City, Cincinnati, Atlanta, Miami, Philadelphia, and Washington. The company expects warmer-than-normal temperatures in the Pacific Coast states, northern Rockies and Plains, Great Lakes and Northeast, including Seattle, Portland, San Francisco, Sacramento, Los Angeles, Billings, Bismarck, Minneapolis, Chicago, Detroit, Boston, New York.

“We expect below-normal temperatures to continue into February in the Northeast, while [the Climate Prediction Center] is favoring warmer-than-normal temperatures there,” said WSI seasonal forecaster Dr. Todd Crawford. “We also expect the February-April period to average cooler-than-normal in the Ohio Valley and mid-Atlantic states, while CPC is forecasting warmer-than-normal temperatures.”

WSI said its latest forecast indicates there may be a “significant boost” to heating demand in the Northeast, Mid-Atlantic and Midwest regions during February. “That would push both gas and power demand up, keeping power prices and the gas basis high,” the company said. Noting that March and April are traditionally “shoulder months”, with moderate heating and/or cooling demand, WSI said that if its forecast holds true, warmer-than-normal temperatures during those months will push gas and power prices back down.

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