At the midpoint in the hurricane season on Sept. 10, it was already clear that Atlantic hurricane forecasts this year fell a little short of the mark. But no one could have predicted that this August would have a record number of named storms (eight) and intense hurricanes (three). September also is shaping up to have higher than normal tropical activity, and some forecasters believe this season will remain active through November.

“We’re in an active period and we don’t see any reason why it shouldn’t continue to remain active for the remainder of the hurricane season,” said Stacy Stewart, a hurricane specialist at the National Hurricane Center. The traditional hurricane season ends Nov. 30, but 83% of the named storms usually occur in August, September and October.

There are three named storms in the Atlantic currently: Hurricane Jeanne, Hurricane Karl and Tropical Storm Lisa. So far this season there have been 12 named storms and the season still has two-and-a-half months remaining. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predicted in August that there would be 12-15 named storms, 20-50% more than normal, throughout the entire season and the season already has reached the bottom end of that range. There also already have been four major hurricanes, which equals the NOAA forecast for the entire season.

“How long [this active period] is going to last is difficult to say, but typically October is a busy month for us also,” Stewart said. “I would expect that we’ll see increased activity in the Northwest Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico as we get into the latter part of September and into October. Usually November, even if it is active, tends to be suppressed farther South, mainly into the Caribbean Sea or possibly the southwestern Gulf of Mexico, but a U.S. landfall by a tropical cyclone in November is much more rare.”

Stewart said the NHC wasn’t too surprised by the level of activity this year — “maybe by the earliness of it, but we were anticipating an above average season.”

He said the disturbances that came off of the West Coast of Africa this year were a little bit stronger and better organized than in previous years and were not moving as fast this season. These disturbances also tended to come off of Africa at a slightly lower latitude than what was seen in previous years. When they come off of Africa at a higher latitude, they tend to get caught up by a trough off the East Coast of the United States and pushed out to sea, said Stewart. This year that trough, which has tended to protect the U.S. over the last several years, shifted westward into the central United States, allowing more landfalls.

“With these features in place, it wasn’t surprising that it was a fairly active August and September so far,” said Stewart. “We usually average maybe two or three named storms during the month of August, and this year we had eight so that was a surprise.

“But we’ve had years like this before. It’s just that we’re getting more notoriety this year because these storms have hit land. We have Karl out there now, another category four hurricane. If you move that 1,000 miles to the West into the United States, maybe it hits Florida again and everyone would be bleary-eyed. But we see these patterns when we get into an active period.”

Stewart noted that in the mid 1990s it was North Carolina that was getting pounded by consecutive storms. A couple of years ago, Louisiana seemed to be the target with Isidore and then Lily; luckily they weakened before they made landfall.

“Timing plays a critical role in what particular locations get hit,” said Stewart. “Ivan could have easily been a strong category four, possibly near category five, if certain things had changed a little bit…We have no skill in forecasting what something is going to do four or five days down the road.

“This year has been a tough time for the United States. We may see more. The season isn’t over, and we may see more next year. We just can’t say,” Stewart noted. “I wouldn’t put your storm shutters away yet.”

Dr. William Gray of Colorado State University expects October will be calmer than normal. Gray said in an update earlier this month that the September-only forecast calls for five named storms, three hurricanes, two major hurricanes and activity that is nearly double the mean September-only average value. Gray’s October-only forecast calls for three named storms, one hurricane, no major hurricanes and activity that is slightly below the mean October average. These lower October values are due to the very warm equatorial sea surface conditions in the central Pacific, Gray said.

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