Natural gas forward prices for March fell an average 13 cents between Feb. 2 and 8 as only brief periods of cold weather in the forecast were no match for record production, according to NGI’s Forward Look.
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Natural gas prices for October fell an average 12 cents from Sept. 1 to 6 as a trifecta of factors created the only logical path for forward markets during the short holiday week, according to NGI’s Forward Look. NGI was closed Sept. 4 in observance of Labor Day.
April natural gas is expected to open a penny lower Thursday morning at $1.78 as traders juggle a changing weather outlook with indications that storage is filling fast. Overnight oil markets fell.
November natural gas is set to open 5 cents lower Wednesday morning at $2.43 as forecasters tweak their predictions to the warm side. Overnight oil markets fell.
September natural gas is expected to open 3 cents higher Wednesday morning at $2.73 as overnight six- to 10-day weather models turned slightly warmer. Overnight oil markets fell.
The decline in U.S. rigs on a year/year basis gained momentum, as evidenced by the most recent Baker Hughes Inc. rig count. The total U.S. rig count fell 41% year/year for the week ending March 20 versus 38% year/year in the previous week’s count.
Natural gas prices for Friday delivery fell a nickel on average Thursday as most traders elected to get their deals done ahead of a government storage report that was expected to have bearish overtones.
Physical natural gas prices for Tuesday delivery overall fell a penny on average Monday as most points fluctuated within a few cents of unchanged. Modest strength in the Midcontinent and double-digit gains at certain Marcellus points were unable to offset broad weakness elsewhere. At the close of trading October futures had retreated 8.5 cents to $3.602 and November was off 8.6 cents to $3.677. November crude oil dropped $1.16 to $103.59/bbl.
Nearly all active physical natural gas trading points declined Friday weekend and Monday delivery. The average setback was 8 cents, with Rockies points dropping a dime and losses at New England points closer to a nickel.
Physical natural gas prices for Friday delivery fell an average 9 cents in Thursday’s trading. Physical traders will typically try to get their deals done before the release of government inventory figures, but physical prices had their own volatility to deal with in the form of sharp changes in the near-term weather picture.