After dipping into the high $5.20s just before noon EST, the natural gas futures market rebounded Tuesday in concert with a spiking crude oil market. However, natural gas was unable to keep pace with the 3% gain notched by its hydrocarbon brethren and ultimately failed to match its own $5.50 high from Monday.

The March contract closed at $5.404, up 5.5 cents for the session and a couple of pennies off its $5.43 high Tuesday.

Buoyed by a OPEC pledge to adhere to its 24.5 million-barrel-a-day quota and to cut production on April 1, the crude oil market surged Tuesday. The March contract received the biggest buying boost, advancing $1.04 to close at $33.87/bbl.

And while natural gas can sometimes move in sympathy with crude oil prices, Tuesday was not one of those occasions. At 5.5 cents, the March natural gas contract was up just 1% for the session. Traders polled by NGI were quick to note that while OPEC may move to limit the crude oil production of its member companies, there is no similar supply ceiling in natural gas.

Instead, natural gas prices have recently come under selling pressure as a spate of cold weather in the eastern half of the country has failed to elicit record-setting storage withdrawals. Now, with spring around the corner and moderating temperatures popping up on the latest round of intermediate-term outlooks, the bears are clearly in control.

“It’s time to lock in some sales,” reasoned Thomas Riley of Petroleum Development Corp. “Storage is in good shape, the forecasts are moderating…we may have very well seen the [price] crest.”

Riley is eager to see more confirmation this Thursday when the Energy Information Administration announces its latest storage update, believing that barring another 220 Bcf+ withdrawal, the market is headed lower. On the charts, Riley targets $4.85-90 as a potential bottom for March futures, but admits that could be conservative as the recent downtrend has been pretty steep.

Using a purely technical approach, Craig Coberly of GSC Energy in Atlanta disagrees and believes the market is at or near its low. “If gas does slide a bit lower, the Gann support lines just below the market will be likely objectives,” he said, noting that these lines are currently clustered in the $5.24-25 area. “When this low is completed, the intermediate-term outlook will be for gas to move higher for several weeks. I still have my sights set on the $7.00 area with the possibility of higher,” he speculated.

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