Although a couple of sources had been dubious a day earlier about cold weather forecasts for the holiday weekend being able to rally the cash market, the projected jump in heating load proved sufficient to boost prices at most points Thursday. After sinking by triple-digit amounts in the previous two days, Northeast citygates led the rebound with gains of a dollar or more at most locations as regional lows were expected to fall into the 20s again after a gradual warming trend.

Most points were flat to a little more than $1.30 higher; outside the Northeast increases failed to exceed a little more than 80 cents and nearly all were much less than that. With moderating weather prevailing in much of the region (even Denver was recovering to lows in the mid 20s and highs in the mid 40s Friday), the West saw most of Thursday’s losses ranging from a couple of pennies to about 20 cents.

The Energy Information Administration’s report of a 124 Bcf storage withdrawal during the week ending Dec. 25 fell far short of consensus expectations centered around the mid 140s Bcf. February futures, which had been up more than a dime prior to the report, quickly took a dive and ended the day 13.7 cents lower than Wednesday’s regular session close (see related story).

Thursday’s price advance was largely spurred by temperatures expected to drop further into the single digits or lower at many Midwest locations; and although the Northeast was forecast to continue a slight warming trend Friday, much colder temperatures and heavy snowfalls in some sections would be arriving during the weekend, The Weather Channel said. Chilly but relatively moderate conditions were expected to continue across most of the southern U.S.

Southern Natural Gas and ANR added to the list of pipeline OFOs or related constraints that would already exist or become effective during the holiday weekend (see Transportation Notes). Northern Natural Gas, which already had a System Overrun Limitation in effect, expected its system-weighted temperature to fall to zero Friday and minus three Saturday before “recovering” to plus one Sunday. Florida Gas Transmission said predictions of cold weather in its Florida market prompted it to warn shippers of a potential Overage Alert Day during the long weekend.

After dipping substantially below minimum target levels Tuesday and Wednesday, linepack on Kern River appeared to be recovering slightly Thursday, the pipeline said.

A western trader confirmed that wellhead freeze-offs had been occurring in San Juan Basin, where his company often purchases gas. “We saw quite a bit disappear in the last couple of days,” he said Thursday. Rather than re-sourcing supply, he said he mostly adjusted the volumes among various San Juan meters. A weak California market is not surprising, he said, because the state had been warming up lately and should stay moderate through the holiday weekend.

The trader said he thought the holiday period prompted most people to finish their January baseload business before bidweek began.

A North Texas marketer said her area had a “white Christmas” but was unlikely to repeat the experience for New Year’s Day, although it might get a little more snow Thursday night. Prices were running up a little bit that morning but started falling after the storage report, she said; however, by that time most cash trading had been completed. North Texas was expected to get warmer over the weekend before turning colder again this week, she said.

The marketer said her company did all of its January sales at index flat to premiums of 0.25-0.5 cents.

Because of the “definitely bearish” storage number, a Midcontinent producer said his company is not convinced that gas prices will be going up “anytime soon.” He reported seeing Midcontinent Jan. 1-31 prices “slip good” on IntercontinentalExchange, and said they were well below anticipated first-of-month indexes.

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