Leticia Gonzales

With weather systems drenching much of the United States early in the week, and scorching heat continuing in other areas of the country, weekly prices were a mixed bag for the June 24-27 period. (Deals transacted on Friday were for delivery July 1 and not included in NGI’s Weekly Average.) Individual gains and losses were mostly in the single digits, leaving the NGI Spot Gas Weekly Avg. just a half-cent higher $1.935.

The Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported a 98 Bcf injection into natural gas storage inventories for the week ending June 21, snapping a string of triple-digit builds dating back to mid-May and delivering the tightest stat of the summer so far.

Driven by increasingly warmer weather outlooks, natural gas forward prices posted nearly 10-cent gains across the front of the curve for the June 20-26 period, according to NGI’s Forward Look.

After several weeks of exceptionally bearish data, the latest natural gas storage report renewed optimism for bulls, sending futures prices higher Thursday. The August Nymex contract, in its first day in the prompt-month position, settled 5.6 cents higher at $2.324/MMBtu. September rose 5.4 cents to $2.298.

Natural gas futures stall as weather models hold outlooks intact

Natural gas bulls and bears remained at a stalemate for most of Wednesday, but a hint of cooler weather ahead in the latest weather data was enough to spur some aggressive selling in the last half hour of trading. The July Nymex gas futures contract went on to expire 1.7 cents lower at $2.291, while August contract fell 1.8 cents lower at $2.268.

A significantly hotter shift in some of the weather models was enough to help natural gas futures recover more than half of last week’s roughly 20-cent plunge. The July Nymex gas futures contract skyrocketed 11.7 cents on Monday to settle at $2.303. August jumped 11.5 cents to $2.284.

After sharp swings over the last week, natural gas futures tapped the breaks Tuesday as weather models remained fairly intact, trending only slightly hotter overall for the late June/early July period. With production data pointing to the highest output in 30 days, the July Nymex gas futures contract went on to settle at $2.308/MMBtu, a half-cent higher on the day.

Natural gas futures closed last week in positive territory, but only as a sign that the market stopped for a breather after Thursday’s dramatic plunge, not any renewed bullish momentum. After climbing as high as $2.222, the July Nymex gas futures contract settled Friday at $2.186, up one-tenth of a cent. Similarly modest shifts were seen throughout the curve.