Shell plc has tempered its expectations for peak LNG demand over the next two decades, but the top natural gas trader still expects the current buildout of export capacity led by the United States to fall short of rising global consumption driven by Asia.

In its latest liquefied natural gas market outlook, the London-based integrated major estimated worldwide demand would rise 50% by 2040, thanks in part to coal-to-gas switching in China and booming economic growth in the global South.

“China is the market we are most bullish about this decade, and the reason for that is the massive amount of gas infrastructure being built,” by 2030, said Steve Hill, executive vice president for energy marketing.

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