Mercados

Natural Gas Futures Slip Ahead of Potentially Mild April; Waha Stays Negative

  • April Nymex futures down 1.5 cents to $2.740; May off 2.3 cents to $2.751
  • “We expect once this bearish pattern sets up it will likely last into mid-April”: NatGasWeather
  • Lower 48 dry gas production averaging 87.8 Bcf/d since Saturday, ~2.4 Bcf/d above MTD low: Genscape
  • West Texas prices gain after Monday’s historic lows, but negative trades abound
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Unprecedented Lows in West Texas; Range-Bound Natural Gas Futures Finish Near Even

  • April Nymex futures settle at $2.755, up 0.2 cents; May up 0.7 cents to $2.774
  • “Natural gas pricing is positioned to open the week on shaky footing as flow data shows LNG feed gas down about 1.5 Bcf/d, while production is up about 1.0 Bcf/d”: TPH
  • Region-wide negative average spot prices in West Texas
  • “I’ve never seen wholesale price negativity like this before,” says NGI’s Rau
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Support Tested as Natural Gas Futures Fall; West Texas Cash Gains

  • April Nymex futures down 6.8 cents to $2.753, May down 6.0 cents to $2.767
  • Whether $2.75 support holds “will be the big question” over weekend: Powerhouse’s Thompson
  • “Constructive weather this quarter has helped boost the 1Q2019 storage withdrawal pace to average nearly 5 Bcf/d stronger than 1Q2018,” says Societe Generale
  • Average Waha physical prices climb back into positives as West Texas spot gains marginally
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Natural Gas Futures Steady After On-Target Natural Gas Storage Data; West Texas Cash Lowers the Floor

  • April Nymex futures gain 0.1 cents to $2.821; May up 0.2 cents to $2.827
  • In 1Q2019, “we have seen a larger average impact” from production freeze-offs: Genscape’s Fell
  • LNG export supply growth of an estimated 22 mmty during 2018 “proved too much to handle,” says BofA
  • Waha spot prices average in the negatives, drop 27.0 cents d/d to -1.5 cents
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Constraints Clobber West Texas Cash; Natural Gas Futures Climb on Cold Trends

  • April Nymex futures up 2.4 cents to $2.874; May up 1.6 cents to $2.872
  • GFS data Tuesday added 36 HDDs versus 24 hours earlier: NatGasWeather
  • “Price formation will depend on how hefty injection rates are at the start of the shoulder season,” says Energy Aspects
  • Waha spot prices fall again as “little relief in sight” for W.TX basis, says Genscape’s Margolin
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Natural Gas Futures Rebound as Forecasts Seen Slightly Cooler

  • April Nymex futures up 5.5 cents to $2.850; May up 5.4 cents to $2.856
  • Unclear if markets “really have weather concerns” or if traders just “content keeping prices in the $2.80-2.89 range,” says NatGasWeather
  • “I think everybody expected this thing to come in and follow through on the sell-off from Friday,” says Powerhouse’s Levin
  • Waha spot prices tumble; EPNG declares force majeure in New Mexico
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Natural Gas Futures Drop as End of Withdrawal Season Nigh

  • April Nymex futures fall 6.0 cents to $2.795; May down 5.8 cents to $2.802
  • “The most recent data continues to suggest a relatively mild pattern will hold over much of the country through the end of the month and into the start of April,” says NatGasWeather
  • Year/year storage deficit “could be cut by nearly half in just two weeks, with the potential for this decline to continue throughout April”: EBW’s Weissman
  • Waha gives back recent gains; Genscape reports constraint on EPNG
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