Mercados

Natural Gas Futures End Week with a Surge On Threat of Returning Cold

  • Hints of colder weather before the end of the month enough to drive winter natural gas prices sharply higher on Friday
  • EIA’s reported 63 Bcf storage withdrawal reflects slightly tighter storage picture that should keep firm support under prices unless long-range cold risks ease
  • Spot gas prices strengthen as bitter cold set to continue through early next week before milder weather moves in
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January Natural Gas Slides as Forecasts for Rising Temps Could Break Support

  • Weather forecasts showing warmer weather continuing through late December sends January natural gas significantly lower
  • Spot gas prices generally move lower as intense cold eases
  • Southern California spot gas prices skyrocket as two pipeline maintenance events set for Friday
  • BREAKING: EIA reports a 63 Bcf storage withdrawal for the week ending Nov. 30
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Natural Gas Bulls, Bears Duke It Out But January Ends Only Marginally Higher; Spot Gas Eases

  • Intraday volatility still high as traders weigh unclear long-range weather outlooks against low storage inventories
  • Energy Information Administration set to release weekly storage report on Friday; market observers look for deficit to widen
  • Projections for low gas stocks at end of winter already being priced in to longer-dated futures contracts
  • Spot gas slides as demand is set to ease despite lingering cold
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Potential for Cold January Sends Natural Gas Futures Higher; Spot Gas Remains Elevated

  • Early indications of cold weather returning by January help lift Nymex January natural gas futures contract
  • Production hits a new record as several supply basins post weekly gains
  • Storage concerns remain even as mid-December warmup expected to slightly improve deficits
  • Spot gas prices continue to strengthen as cold blankets eastern United States
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Overpriced January Natural Gas Tanks on Mid-December Warmup; Spot Gas Rises on Cold

  • Traders finally catch on to warming trend in weather outlooks, send Nymex January contract tumbling
  • Mid-December warm-up could extend for remainder of the month, stall hefty storage withdrawals
  • EIA to delay this week’s storage report to 10:30 a.m. Friday due to Dec. 5 closing of federal government offices, financial markets on Dec. 5 in honor of former President George H.W. Bush
  • Spot gas prices rise as chilly air moves across country
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Natural Gas Futures Down Slightly as Mid-December Mild Trends Loom; SoCal Cash Spikes

  • January Nymex futures down 3.4 cents to $4.612; February settles 6.3 cents lower at $4.419
  • “All weather models continued to show a mild ridge setting up across much of the eastern two thirds of the country Dec. 12-15,” says NatGasWeather
  • Production topped 87 Bcf/d Friday, top-day estimate more than 1.22 Bcf/d above prior week’s average: Genscape
  • SoCal Citygate spikes $6.620 to average $13.625
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Bearish EIA Storage Miss Fails to Shake Up Natural Gas Futures; Gains for West Texas Cash

  • January Nymex down 5.3 cents to $4.646; February down 5.6 cents to $4.482
  • EIA’s 59 Bcf withdrawal, lower than expected, “helps cancel out some of the massive draw the prior week,” says Bespoke
  • Guidance mixed, with GFS trending milder, Euro trending colder: NatGasWeather
  • Physical prices gain in West Texas but still lag Henry Hub by wide margin
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Natural Gas Futures Rally Big on December Contract’s Last Day; Struggles Continue for West Texas Cash

  • December expires at $4.715, up 45.3 cents; January settles at $4.699, up 40.7 cents
  • “It appeared a major player had gas liabilities for December, forcing them to buy up the December contract dramatically into expiry”: Bespoke
  • West Texas spot prices still under pressure as Waha falls 19.5 cents to average 45.5 cents
  • “We have long anticipated regional gas prices approaching zero (and potentially negative), as relatively price-agnostic supply pressures limited pipeline takeaway,” says TPH
  • BREAKING: EIA reports a 59 Bcf storage withdrawal for week ending Nov. 23
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Mexico Seen as Eventual Release Valve for Natural Gas Supply Growth Squeezing West Texas

The supply ramp in the Permian Basin, which has overwhelmed takeaway capacity and pressured prices in the region, reached a new threshold this week when some day-ahead deals traded in the negatives, a sign of severe constraints that could last months, said analysts, as the infrastructure buildout catches up with production. Read More

Natural Gas Futures Test Both Sides of Even; More Negative Trades for West Texas Cash

  • December Nymex settles at $4.262, up 1.4 cents; January down 0.7 cents to $4.292
  • Midday data “continues to suggest a milder break will set upa and span much of the country Dec. 11-14,” says NatGasWeather
  • Lower 48 production topped 86 Bcf/d mark last Thursday: Genscape
  • West Texas posts more negative trades; constraints likely due to associated gas growth, says RBN’s Ferguson
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