Colder Guidance Helps Natural Gas Futures Rebound After Early Selling

  • February Nymex futures up 6.9 cents to $3.482; March up 6.5 cents to $3.239
  • “Now we head into the weekend with a decent amount of cold risk priced back into the market,” says Bespoke
  • Market “taking a ‘prove it to me’ attitude” with cold forecasts: EBW’s Weissman
  • BHGE U.S. rig count down 25 for week ended Jan. 18 as oil price volatility seen making producers skittish
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After Rallying Early, Natural Gas Futures Sell Off on Milder Forecast Trends

  • February Nymex futures up 2.9 cents to $3.413; March up 2.7 cents to $3.174
  • Last three trading days “like carbon copies of each other” as early gains erased on milder forecast trends, says Bespoke
  • GFS, Euro models trend milder, showing breaks between cold blasts: NatGasWeather
  • Dip in Lower 48 production since November not structural, output to rebound, says Genscape
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Natural Gas Futures Slide for Second Straight Day Despite Bullish Polar Vortex Pattern

  • February Nymex settles 11.7 cents lower at $3.384; March down 10.2 cents to $3.147
  • Split in polar vortex keeping weather outlook bullish, says Powerhouse’s Levin
  • NNG maintenance could cut more than 200 MMcf/d of flows out of Permian: Genscape
  • BREAKING: EIA reports an on-target 81 Bcf storage withdrawal for week ended Jan. 11
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Heating Demand Seen Easing as Natural Gas Futures Pull Back; Impending Cold Shift Boosts Cash

  • February Nymex futures down 9.0 cents to $3.501; March slides 4.0 cents to $3.249
  • “We see a very significant cold signal dominating for the first half of February”: Bespoke
  • “Anomalously warm” first half of winter to give way to an “invasion of Arctic air” starting this weekend, says Radiant
  • Too early to assess potential freeze-offs from upcoming cold, says Genscape
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NatGas Futures, Cash Rally Big as Polar Air Set to Pour Into U.S.

  • February Nymex surges 49.2 cents to $3.591; March up 34.4 cents to $3.289
  • Frigid temps to move in this weekend and continue through end of January, widening deficits and potentially causing freeze-offs: NatGasWeather
  • “Once March gets more involved we could see the February contract potentially test the $3.75 level,” says Bespoke
  • Lower 48 production recently back above 86 Bcf/d after recent dip below 85 Bcf/d, says Genscape
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Natural Gas Futures Finish Strong on Further Cold Trends for Late January

  • February Nymex futures up 13.0 cents to $3.099; March up 13.2 cents to $2.945
  • GFS seeing “several frigid cold shots with at least some polar air” tracking into northern and eastern U.S. Jan. 20-25, says NatGasWeather
  • EIA storage data indicates market loose by more than 4.0 Bcf/d for week ended Jan. 4: Genscape
  • Outlook for rest of 2019 “remains bearish with the end of injection season 2019 as vulnerable to weak prices tied to storage containment fear,” says Societe Generale’s Dougherty
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Natural Gas Futures Slide as EIA Withdrawal Shrinks Deficits

  • February Nymex futures down 1.5 cents to $2.969; March down 2.7 cents to $2.813
  • “It has been a frustrating week for natural gas bulls,” says Bespoke
  • “We now believe it is possible that storage levels can normalize in the back half of winter”: Jefferies
  • U.S. pipeline exports to Mexico rebounding after holiday season slump, says Genscape
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Models Differ on Timing of January Cold as Natural Gas Futures Range-Bound

  • February Nymex futures up 1.7 cents to $2.984; March up 0.5 cents to $2.840
  • Euro model trends colder but doesn’t match GFS for cold starting Jan. 20: NatGasWeather
  • Warm temperatures in December and early January have created “substantial inventory cushion”: Energy Aspects
  • BREAKING: EIA reports a 87 Bcf storage withdrawal for the week ending Jan. 4. However, a 4 Bcf reclassification for a prior week brings the week's net change to a 91 Bcf withdrawal
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