Four straight days of increases on the Nymex set the stage for a significant cash market rebound Wednesday. Daily averages approached the $4.90s in New England and were largely back above $4 in the Rockies except for Northwest Pipeline and Questar. Kingsgate and Station 2 in British Columbia remained below $4.

All market points moved sharply higher Wednesday with increases ranging from the low 20 cents (SoCal Border/PG&E) to the mid to upper 40 cents.

“This was mostly related to Nymex, but there also seems to be some power generation demand out there,” said a Midwest marketer. “The recent market weakness made gas more attractive to generators, particularly with some nukes and coal units down for maintenance. We are definitely seeing a little power buying.

“The six- to 10-day forecast also looks like it will get cold enough in the Midwest that there could be some heating load. Alberta already is down near freezing at night.”

The National Weather Service’s six- to 10-day outlook shows below normal temperatures across the bulk of the United States. Normal temperatures are expected over parts of the Southeast and Gulf Coast, except Florida, and over the northern Rockies and Pacific Coast. The only above normal temperatures are expected to be confined to the Pacific Northwest, inland California, Nevada and Florida.

For now, however, most major U.S. markets outside California, the Pacific Northwest and the Northern Rockies have been experiencing above-normal temperatures. Storms with hail and high winds hit the Midwest hard Tuesday night and ushered in a cold front that will begin to drop temperatures. Southern parts of the Midcontinent remained under summer-like conditions Wednesday with temperatures in the 90s in many places. Record highs were expected to be challenged across Arkansas, Mississippi and Tennessee. But the cool-down already is starting to be felt in some northern Midcontinent locations.

After soaring into the 90s over the past three days, Kansas City was forecast to reach only 72 degrees Wednesday. Chicago dropped about 15 degrees to the low 60s. And highs will fall about 15-20 degrees in Washington, D.C. and New York on Thursday.

“It was pretty cool and quiet in the California market today,” said a retail aggregator, noting temperatures in the 60s. “We’re all trying to figure out what this run-up is about. We’re up more than 20 cents across the board and some people are saying it’s a reaction to production shut-ins. But some of it may also be related to shoulder-month maintenance taking some gas off the market, too. It’s really hard to tell. I think some people went into the month short expecting prices to fall and are now out buying. But they may want to put off multi-day packages. I think another jolting storage report could put us back down pretty shortly.”

There was a wide range of storage predictions Wednesday for the weekly Energy Information Administration report. A Reuters survey of 22 industry observers showed a range of 61 to 85 Bcf and centered on a forecast of a 74 Bcf injection. Meanwhile, the forecast from Bentek Energy, which collects substantial data on actual gas pipeline deliveries into storage fields nationwide, was 9 Bcf lower at 65 Bcf and the ICAP storage options auction on Wednesday indicated a 71 Bcf injection.

About 45 Bcf was injected into storage during the same week last year and the five-year average injection is 66 Bcf. Analysts at Global Insight are predicting a 68 Bcf injection in this week’s report. “Last week heating degree days were below normal in the Northeast and the West but near normal in all other regions,” said Global Insight’s Jim Osten. “Nationwide, HDDs averaged 6% above normal. Cooling degree days were below or near normal in all regions except the West, but are no longer influencing gas demand very much in most regions.”

Bentek Energy said in its U.S. Power — Gas Burn Report on Tuesday that gas demand from power generation totaled about 147 Bcf last week, which was 1 Bcf less than demand a week earlier, implying a similar amount of gas was available for weekly gas storage injections.

The EIA reported a 77 Bcf injection into storage last week for the week ending Sept. 22, bringing working gas levels to 3,254 Bcf, which is 12.2% above the five-year average. With six weeks left in the traditional injection season and a maximum working gas capacity of 3,593 Bcf, according to EIA, weekly injections would only have to average 56.5 Bcf to reach 100% full on Friday Nov. 3.

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