On their first day as prompt contract at Nymex, September natural gas futures had a little something for both bull and bear. While keeping the downtrend intact by notching another lower-low on the daily chart, the contract managed to post a gain for the session — something the August contract failed to do in each of its last three trading days. September finished at $4.668 Wednesday, up 3 cents from Tuesday’s close. At 49,012, daily trading volume has shrunk as it typically does in the middle of summer.

While noting that the rebound off early lows was supportive, Tim Evans of IFR Pegasus in New York was more concerned with the market’s ability to slip lower Wednesday. “The natural gas market set another fresh low on Wednesday, almost just to confirm that the trend remains intact,” he wrote in a note to customers. “The fundamentals also remain relentlessly bearish, with an ongoing mixed temperature outlook that always manages to allow a higher than normal rate of storage injections.”

However, Tom Saal of Commercial Brokerage Corp. in Miami is bullish for precisely the same reasons that Evans is bearish. “This market has factored in all the bearish news there is out there. Storage is filling, weather is mild and there is no imminent threat of a tropical storm. The only news left out there is bullish,” he said.

As of late Wednesday, the National Hurricane Center was tracking a tropical wave that is likely to boost prices if and when it is upgraded to a tropical depression. According to the NHC, the wave was located in the far eastern Atlantic Ocean yesterday, days if not more than a week away from North America.

Of more immediate concern for market watchers is Thursday morning’s release of fresh storage figures. Although most expectations have narrowed to an injection in the 80-90 Bcf range, there are still reports calling for as little as a 75 Bcf refill or as great as a 95 Bcf build. Last year at this time the market was only able to inject 48 Bcf and the five-year average refill, at 55 Bcf, is not much better. Last week the market tumbled on the news that a hefty-but-expected 83 Bcf had been put in the ground the week prior. For storage to reach the 3,000 Bcf target by November 1. weekly injections need to average roughly 70 Bcf.

In daily technicals, Evans sees Wednesday’s low at $4.58 as confirmation September remains in a downtrend. Psychological support at $4.50 and the failed spot resistance at $4.44 may provide the footing for a rebound ahead of a deeper test of $4.13, he said. On the upside, resistance is seen in the $4.80-85 area.

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