Weather during the coming winter months will be mild but active, with above-normal temperatures across the deep South, Mid Atlantic and New England regions, according to forecasters at WxRisk.com.

The on-line service, which specializes in extended weather forecasting and risk management, said New England will see temperatures somewhat above normal with some significant cold spells, while the I-95 corridor stretching from New York south to Richmond will experience several bouts of above- and much-above-normal temperatures. Abnormally warm and dry conditions were forecast to continue across the South, while the Midwest and Central Plains, from Oklahoma to Nebraska, will be a mixed bag. The West Coast, especially the Pacific Northwest, and most of the Rockies and Upper Plains are most likely to see below-normal temperatures and active winter weather this year, the forecasters said.

“The pattern will bear a striking resemblance to the winter of 2005-2006 and the winter of 1970-1971,” said WxRisk forecaster David Tolleris. “In many ways this winter will be a compromise between the two since I do not see the winter 2007-2008 as being as warm as the ’05-’06 winter and not as cold or a snowy as the ’70-’71 winter.”

WxRisk’s forecast follows WSI Corp’s prediction earlier this week of warmer-than-normal winter temperatures across much of the country, with colder-than-normal temperatures in place from the Pacific Northwest to the Great Lakes (see Daily GPI, Nov. 20). Andover, MA-based WSI said temperatures will average colder than normal in the eastern United States in December, with a warmer-than-average February to end the winter.

Like WSI and some other forecasters, WxRisk said an ongoing La Nina event — cooling ocean surface temperatures off the western coast of South America that have been found to disrupt normal weather patterns in the United States — continues to influence weather heading into the winter months.

“The moderate La Nina will hold its intensity through mid January, possibly later,” Tolleris said. “There is also the issue of when and how the La Nina decays from moderate to weak intensity, which could have significant impact late in the winter and early in the spring of 2008.”

Based on the WSI winter forecast, Energy Security Analysis Inc. (ESAI) said record-high natural gas inventories at the start of the heating season in mid-November should moderate a bullish outlook for gas prices in December, while warmer temperatures in the Gulf Coast and Southwest regions should temper overall demand slightly. ESAI said warmer temperatures in January would tend to decrease the chances for extended cold snaps, which would provide price volatility in natural gas, but said the La Nina event could bring occasional shorter periods of very cold weather. With high inventories at the start of the heating season and generally warmer temperatures in January, the outlook for natural gas prices in February is neutral to slightly bearish, ESAI said.

In September the Natural Gas Supply Association said warmer-than-normal temperatures, a flat economy and moderate growth in both natural gas demand and supply should produce a relatively stable market this winter (see Daily GPI, Sept. 28).

MDA EarthSat Energy Weather has predicted that temperatures during December, January and February will be warmer than normal across the country’s southern tier, from Texas to the Southeast, with seasonal to below-normal temperatures across the northern tier, including the Pacific Northwest, Chicago and the Northeast (see Daily GPI, Nov. 2). Rockville, MD-based MDA EarthSat said the coming winter will be 4% colder than last year and the coldest the United States has experienced in four years, but it will still be 1% warmer than the 30-year (1971-2000) normal. According to MDA EarthSat, a colder December, warmer January and a mixed February are likely this year.

An extended winter weather forecast issued last month by chief long-range forecaster Joe Bastardi and his AccuWeather.com team called for a cooler-than-normal beginning and end to the winter, wrapped around three months of higher temperatures that could make it a warmer season than last year and one of the 10 warmest winters ever for the southeastern United States (see Daily GPI, Oct. 24). Bastardi’s winter forecast was generally in agreement with a recent prediction from the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) calling for a relatively warm winter (see Daily GPI, Oct. 19).

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