Concluding “Let’s talk about the Weather Week,” WSI Corp. and New York-based Weather 2000 chimed in Friday with their takes on what Mother Nature has in store for the Lower 48 over the next three months. While Weather 2000’s forecast tended to trend with forecasts released by Salomon Smith Barney and the National Weather Service for colder than normal weather through much of the country except the West, WSI’s differed in seeing warmer than normal temps across the northern tier.

WSI said it expects the January-March period to be cooler-than-normal in the southern tier of states from the Southwest to the Southeast, covering Tucson, Dallas, Houston, Little Rock, Kansas City, Atlanta, and Miami. But it is opting for warmer-than-normal temps in the Pacific Coast states, northern Rockies and Plains, Great Lakes, Northeast, and mid-Atlantic, including Seattle, Portland, San Francisco, Sacramento, Los Angeles, Billings, Bismarck, Minneapolis, Chicago, Detroit, Cincinnati, Philadelphia, Boston, New York and Washington.

Weather 2000 — which called October through December pretty closely — also weighed in on the forecast debate. “We believe there is still a sizeable part of the eastern half of the nation that could see below normal temperatures, not only October through December like we already said, but also January February, March April and even into May,” said Weather 2000’s Michael Schlacter. “Generally speaking, we think that east of the Mississippi River has good chances of seeing below normal temperatures going forward.”

As for west of the Mississippi, Schlacter said el Nino is going to be playing a larger role. “It’s going to be a very tricky line as you approach the Midwest,” Schlacter said. “New York, Philadelphia, DC, Charolotte and Atlanta, I could probably take a very-very strong stance that there is a good chance of colder than normal temperatures for January, February and March.” The forecaster said questions about cities like Cincinnati and Detroit become trickier, but he still leans towards cool, while questions about Dallas, St. Louis and Chicago are too tough to call.

In his report released earlier in the week, Salomon Smith Barney meteorologist Jon Davis pointed toward an “Arctic plunge” that is expected to grip most regions of the country — except the West Coast — in the second week of January (see Daily GPI, Jan. 3 ). And the National Weather Service agreed with below-normal temperatures over the eastern half of the U.S. for the Jan. 9-15 time frame. Only California and the southwestern corner of the country are expected to see above normal temperatures during that period. The two forecasts sent natural gas futures through the roof Wednesday evening and Thursday as traders initiated long positions they had liquidated over the past several weeks (see Daily GPI, Jan. 3).

But in its forecast released Friday, WSI painted a warmer picture, predicting lower heating demand and potentially lower energy prices. In a monthly breakdown, the forecaster said it expects January to hold cooler-than-normal temperatures in the Southern Plains and mid-Atlantic states with the coldest temperature anomalies expected in the Southeast. Warmer-than-normal temperatures are expected from the Rocky Mountains westward, along with the northern and central Plains, Great Lakes states and New England. The warmest temperature anomalies are expected in the Pacific Northwest.

February is likely to bring slightly below-normal temperatures in the Southern Plains, Southeast, and mid-Atlantic states, WSI said. Warmer-than-normal temperatures are expected from the Rocky Mountains westward, along with the northern and central Plains, Great Lakes states and New England. The warmest temperature anomalies are again expected in the Pacific Northwest.

March is forecasted to be slightly colder-than-normal in the Southwest, southern Rockies, southern Plains, Gulf Coast states, and parts of the Southeast. Warmer-than-normal temperatures are expected in the Pacific Coast states, northern and central Rockies, northern and central Plains, Great Lakes states, Ohio Valley, Northeast, and mid-Atlantic states. Once again, the warmest temperatures, relative to normal, are expected in the Pacific Northwest.

If true, WSI’s latest seasonal forecast will be relatively bearish for Midwestern and Northeast power and gas prices. “Above-normal temperatures should keep heating demand — and, therefore, gas demand and electric power loads — down in the Great Lakes, Northeast and Plains during January and February,” WSI said in its report. “Traditionally, normals begin to increase during March. Therefore, if temperatures are above-normal during the month, load and prices could drop even more than usual.”

The forecast also pointed out that above-normal temperatures in the Pacific Northwest could mean less snow pack and a faster and earlier snowmelt, which could push down spring and summer streamflows, limiting hydropower production during the critical summer months.

“After a cold start to the heating season in the eastern and southern states, which WSI forecasted, we expect the remainder of the winter to be characterized by warmer-than-normal temperatures in the West and across the northern tier of states, with cooler-than-normal temperatures in the Southeast,” said WSI seasonal forecaster Dr. Todd Crawford. “CPC’s [Climate Prediction Center] outlook is in agreement.”

WSI said its three-month seasonal forecasts have been “skillful” for eight out of the last 12 periods. A skillful seasonal forecast is defined as one that is closer to what is actually observed than a forecast using the 10-year average temperature.

In addition, WSI said its Energycast seasonal forecasts are now being issued using the trailing 10-year (1992-2001) average temperature as “normal”. The new method reflects the sentiment in the trading industry that the last 10 years are more representative of future weather than the U.S. government standard 30-year fixed (1971-2000) averages.

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