Despite the appearance in the last 10 days of the 2009 Atlantic hurricane season’s first three named storms, Andover, MA-based WSI Corp. said it is sticking with its previous forecast of a total of 10 named storms, including five hurricanes, with two of them intense (Category Three or greater) forming by Nov. 30.

In its initial hurricane forecast for the 2009 season WSI had predicted 13 named storms, three of them intense (see Daily GPI, Dec. 29, 2008). But a continuation of relatively cool tropical Atlantic Ocean temperatures, combined with unusually cold temperatures in the eastern equatorial Pacific and normal to above-normal wind shear in the tropical Atlantic, prompted the forecaster in April to reduce those numbers to 11 named storms, including six hurricanes, with two of them intense (see Daily GPI, April 23). In July a wind shear environment unfavorable to hurricane development across the tropical Atlantic, which was being driven by a recently developed El Nino event, prompted WSI to further reduce the number of hurricanes in its forecast (see Daily GPI, July 21).

El Nino — the warming of surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific ocean, which can influence the formation of Atlantic hurricanes — arrived at the end of June, according to National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) scientists (see Daily GPI, July 10). El Nino events, which occur every two to five years and typically last about 12 months, can help suppress Atlantic hurricane activity.

WSI said it was reiterating the hurricane numbers first forecast in July because there have been no significant changes in the current El Nino event. The number of tropical storms forecast by WSI would be fewer than occurred during the 2008 season, when a total of 16 named storms, including eight hurricanes, five of them intense, formed in the Atlantic. But it would be about the same as an average hurricane season, which has 11 named storms, including two major hurricanes, according to NOAA.

“Ocean temperatures in the tropical Atlantic have warmed up considerably during the past month, but this warming likely represents only a shallow surface layer and probably isn’t indicative of any substantial increase in total available energy,” said WSI seasonal forecaster Todd Crawford. “On the other hand, the El Nino event has not yet created a particularly destructive wind shear environment across the tropical Atlantic yet, and the strength of the event itself has flattened out at relatively weak levels in recent weeks. Our current forecast of 10 named storms certainly seems well within reach at this point.”

The 2009 season’s first hurricane, Bill, reached Category Four status for a short time last week while it was still south of Bermuda (see Daily GPI, Aug. 20). The storm caused rough seas and unusually high tides along much of the East Coast but did not make landfall until it passed over southeastern Newfoundland early Monday morning. By then it had been downgraded to a tropical storm with maximum sustained winds of 75 mph and some hurricane-force wind gusts. Early reports indicated that there was “minimal damage” in Nova Scotia, according to Ramona Jennex, the provinces’ minister of emergency management. Bill quickly lost its tropical characteristics and by 11 a.m. EDT Monday was located about 190 miles northeast of Cape Race, NF, according to the National Weather Service’s National Hurricane Center (NHC).

ExxonMobil Canada on Monday was checking for damage at its Sable Offshore Energy Project (SOEP) about 125 miles off the coast of Nova Scotia, spokeswoman Margot Bruce-O’Connell told NGI. ExxonMobil began evacuating all 200 personnel Friday from SOEP Friday in preparation for Bill. Because the facility was already down for maintenance, the evacuation did not affect production, Bruce-O’Connell said.

Ana, the first named storm of the 2009 season, reached tropical storm status last week before it dissolved into a disorganized pattern of showers and thunderstorms across the eastern Caribbean last week. Tropical Storm Claudette became the first tropical storm to hit the U.S. mainland this year when it made landfall near Santa Rosa Island, FL, about 30 miles east of the Alabama border, on Aug. 17, according to NHC. Claudette quickly weakened to a tropical depression and moved northwest over southern Alabama.

NHC on Monday was monitoring disorganized showers and thunderstorms about 350 miles east of the Leeward Islands. There is little chance of the system becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours and no tropical storms were expected to form elsewhere over the next two days, NHC said.

Colorado State University (CSU) forecasters recently said they expect Atlantic tropical storm activity to be “at above-average levels” through Sept. 4 (see Daily GPI, Aug. 21). Due largely to the development of the current El Nino event, the CSU team reduced its tropical storm forecast for 2009 to 10 named storms, including four hurricanes, two of them intense.

Earlier this month NOAA said the quiet start to the hurricane season did not guarantee that the next four months will remain calm (see Daily GPI, Aug. 7). NOAA expects that the Atlantic hurricane season, which began June 1 and runs through Nov. 30, will see near- to below-normal activity, with the calming effects of El Nino continuing to develop. But despite the calm experienced in June and July, the historical peak months of the hurricane season — August to October — could still produce major storms, according to NOAA.

NOAA is predicting fewer storms, with a 70% chance of seven to 11 named storms, three to six of them hurricanes, including just one or two major hurricanes. Forecasters, including Andover, MA-based WSI Corp., have said a new El Nino event, combined with cooler Atlantic ocean temperatures, is likely to make the 2009 Atlantic hurricane season “relatively quiet.” AccuWeather.com Chief Long Range Forecaster Joe Bastardi has also forecast a mild hurricane season (see Daily GPI, May 15).

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