The 2009 Atlantic Hurricane season seems likely to be milder than last year’s, with Andover, MA-based WSI Corp. on Tuesday adding its name to the list of forecasters predicting “relatively quiet” storm numbers.

WSI’s forecast calls for a total of 11 named storms, including six hurricanes, with two of them intense (Category Three or greater), forming between June 1 and Nov. 30. That would be less tropical storm activity than during the 2008 season, when a total of 16 named storms, including eight hurricanes, five of them intense, formed in the Atlantic. But it would be about the same as an average hurricane season, which has 11 named storms, including two major hurricanes, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).

In its initial hurricane forecast for the 2009 season WSI had predicted 13 named storms, three of them intense (see Daily GPI, Dec. 29, 2008). But a continuation of relatively cool tropical Atlantic Ocean temperatures, combined with the waning of a recent La Nina event and normal to above-normal wind shear in the tropical Atlantic, prompted the forecaster to reduce those numbers (see Daily GPI, April 23). In an update issued on Tuesday WSI said those conditions continue to point to the same numbers of tropical storms.

The WSI forecast follows a similar prediction of a “near-normal” Atlantic hurricane season issued last week by NOAA (see Daily GPI, May 22). While NOAA said there is a 50% probability of a near-normal season, it also noted that global weather patterns “are imposing a greater uncertainty in the 2009 hurricane season outlook than in recent years,” leaving a 25% chance the upcoming season will be above- or below-normal.

Earlier this month AccuWeather.com Chief Long Range Forecaster Joe Bastardi said the upcoming hurricane season may produce fewer storms than last year, but the Texas coast could be hit by an early tropical storm (see Daily GPI, May 15). Bastardi previously predicted 13 named storms, including eight hurricanes, two of them intense (see Daily GPI, March 19). AccuWeather.com expects three storms to deal at least tropical storm-force winds to the U.S. coast, two of which could be hurricanes, and perhaps one major hurricane.

“Anywhere along the United States coast is susceptible to an impact, but the Texas coast early in the season and East Coast from the Carolinas northward during the heart of the season are areas that have us worried,” Bastardi said.

The Colorado State University forecast team, which had previously estimated that there would be 14 named storms during the 2009 season (see Daily GPI, Dec. 11, 2008), recently revised its forecast to 12 named storms, with at least half of them likely to become hurricanes, two of them intense (see Daily GPI, April 8).

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