The mild temperatures that have dominated this winter’s weather will fade somewhat over the next three months, with cooler-than-normal temperatures moving into much of the western United States and parts of the Northeast, according to forecasters at Andover, MA-based Weather Services International (WSI).

Despite the relative cool-down in the West and Northeast, temperatures are expected to average above normal in much of the rest of the country, and the possibility of a new El Nino event — the warming of surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean — could mean summer temperatures will be more moderate this year, WSI said.

“This is consistent with a waning La Nina event,” said WSI Chief Meteorologist Todd Crawford. “Further, if there continues to be a general lack of North Atlantic atmospheric blocking, the warmer-than-normal temperatures will be more significant and more widespread across the eastern U.S. this spring.

“Finally, we may see an El Nino event developing later in the spring into early summer, although there is still significant uncertainty. Historically, developing El Nino events have been associated with generally cooler summers across much of the U.S. While it is still too early to have a lot of confidence about the summer forecast, the potential for El Nino along with relatively cooler North Atlantic Ocean waters does imply that another hot summer may be less likely.”

WSI expects temperatures to average cooler than normal across the Northeast and the West in March, with warmer-than-normal temperatures expected in the Southeast and Central United States.

“Given the outlook for mild temperatures throughout much of the country in March, Henry Hub natural gas prices will likely finish the winter heating season at very depressed levels,” said Energy Securities Analysis Inc.’s (ESAI) Chris Kostas, senior analyst. “Natural gas inventories will likely finish the withdrawal season above 2,000 Bcf. While cooler-than-normal temperatures in the Northeast should marginally support delivered gas prices in New York and New England, with supplies widely expected to be plentiful, the price impact of these cooler temperatures should be minimal.

“Power and gas prices in PJM and MISO will likely remain depressed, and coal-to-gas switching will continue to be a major factor as coal-fired generators struggle to compete against their gas-fired peers.” With inventories in the West running 35% above the five-year average, ESAI doesn’t expect slightly higher-than-normal springtime heating demand there to have much of an impact on prices, Kostas said.

WSI expects warmer-than-normal temperatures to dominate all of the East and Central United States in April, with cooler-than-normal temperatures remaining in place in the West.

“Mild temperatures and robust inventories (to begin the summer injection season) should keep natural gas prices soft through April,” Kostas said. “Generation maintenance will likely combine with low gas prices and coal-to-gas switching to boost implied on-peak market heat rates particularly in ERCOT, MISO and PJM (where coal is typically a major baseload component)…Natural gas prices are likely to remain depressed through early spring.”

WSI’s temperature map splits in May, with cooler-than-normal weather forecast for the nation’s northern tier and warmer-than-normal temperatures expected across the southern tier (except coastal southern California).

The price impact of cooler temperatures in the West and North is likely to be minimal, Kostas said.

“Warmer-than-normal temperatures across the southern tier of the country, however, will likely spur some early cooling demand. Although generation maintenance typically wraps up by mid-May in the South, warmer-than-normal temperatures and higher-than-normal cooling demand could be the spark that producers are looking for to lift gas prices out of the basement and start the summer off on a bullish note,” he said.

Mild winter temperatures dominated much of the country last month, making it the fourth-warmest January on record for the contiguous United States, according to AccuWeather.com (see NGI, Feb. 13). While much of the country will continue to see warmer-than-normal weather, relatively colder temperatures may move into the Northeast “just in time for spring,” said AccuWeather.com expert senior meteorologist Jack Boston.

WSI is scheduled to issue its next seasonal outlook on March. 20.

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