Weather Services International (WSI) said it expects temperatures over the next three months (December-February) to be slightly colder than normal in the Southeast and along the eastern seaboard but warmer-than-normal elsewhere, with the largest positive temperature anomalies in the Southwest.

Specifically, WSI predicts the following temperature trends: In December, it sees cooler-than-normal temperatures east of the Mississippi River with the coolest temperatures, relative to normal, in the Southeast. Warmer-than-normal temperatures are expected in the western two-thirds of the country, with the largest temperature anomalies in the Southwest. In January, cooler-than-normal temperatures are expected in the Pacific Northwest, northern and central Rockies, the Plains, and Great Lakes states with the coolest temperatures in the central and southern Plains. Meanwhile warmer-than-normal temperatures are expected in California, the Southwest, and most locations east of the Mississippi River. In February, warmer-than-normal temperatures are expected across the entire United States.

“We expect a reversal of the November pattern in December, with warmer-than-normal temperatures returning to the West and cooler-than-normal temperatures in the East,” said WSI’s Todd Crawford. “We differ from [National Weather Service] in the Southeast, where they expect another warm month. We also expect the entire December-February period to be warmer-than-normal in the western half of the country, with slightly cooler-than-normal temperatures in the East. The [National Weather Service] outlook is not notably different from ours, emphasizing the warmth in the West.”

Consultants at Energy Security Analysis Inc. (ESAI) said the forecast could lead to early price spikes because temperatures are expected to be cooler-than-normal east of the Mississippi in December. “Cold weather early in the winter season may set bullish expectations and cause concerns with regard to heavy draws on gas inventories if the cold weather should be perceived as extending through March,” ESAI said in a statement on the forecast. “Gas and electricity prices then may rise unduly due to this expectation.”

However, the significant warm-up expected in the East in January and February should moderate prices. Cool temperatures are expected in the Plains states in January, which should have a bullish impact on gas demand, offsetting the lower demand from the East, ESAI noted. But the warmer than normal outlook for all regions in February “should help allay fears of gas shortages and to keep prices moderate. Lower prospects for high gas price spikes will also keep power prices moderate.”

©Copyright 2003 Intelligence Press Inc. Allrights reserved. The preceding news report may not be republishedor redistributed, in whole or in part, in any form, without priorwritten consent of Intelligence Press, Inc.