Weather Services International (WSI) is calling for a cool October east of the Rockies but warmer than normal temperatures on average in the Northeastern United States through December. Cooler-than-normal temperatures are expected on average through December in the Plains, Great Lakes, Rockies, and Pacific Northwest.

The firm said the coolest temperatures relative to normal over the three-month period should be in the northern Rockies, while the warmest temperatures relative to normal are expected in the Northeast.

“We expect below-normal temperatures in the eastern two-thirds of the country in October, while [the National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center] is forecasting equal chances of warmer-than-normal or colder-than-normal in the East,” said WSI’s Todd Crawford. “However, we also expect the rest of the October-December period to be warmer-than-normal in all of the major eastern cities, while CPC again is forecasting equal chances of warmer-than-normal or colder-than-normal.”

This month, WSI is expecting cooler-than-normal temperatures for most areas east of the Rockies, with the largest negative temperature anomalies in the northern and central Plains and Great Lakes states. The warmest temperatures relative to normal are expected along the Pacific Coast and in the Southwest.

In November, the coolest temperatures relative to normal should be in the northern Rockies and Pacific Northwest with cooler-than-normal temperatures on average also in the central Rockies, and northern and central Plains. Warmer-than-normal temperatures are expected elsewhere, with the largest warm temperature anomalies expected in the Northeast.

And then in December, WSI is expecting cooler-than-normal temperatures north and west of a line from San Diego to Cleveland with the coolest temperatures in the Pacific Northwest and the northern Rockies. Warmer-than-normal temperatures are expected elsewhere, with the warmest temperature relative to normal in the Gulf Coast states and Southeast.

Consulting firm Energy Security Analysis Inc. (ESAI) said WSI’s forecast for above-normal temperatures in the Northeast for the fourth quarter, particularly in November, will “provide a backdrop for lower power demand and will be somewhat bearish for power prices.” The firm also said the warmth would allow for higher gas storage injections and lower natural gas prices. “This impact could be offset slightly by cooler than normal temperatures in the northern and central Plains and Great Lakes states; however, it is unlikely to have much effect on the October natural gas injections.

“In the Pacific Northwest, an already tight hydro situation combined with colder-than-average temperatures will help to strengthen Mid-C and COB electricity prices in the fourth quarter,” ESAI added.

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