For the third time this year, WSI Corp. has increased its Atlantic hurricane forecast, now saying that a La Nina event will contribute to the formation of 20 named storms, including 11 hurricanes, five of them intense (Category Three or greater) — and tropical storm activity is already heating up, with 2010’s first potential hurricane churning in the Caribbean.

WSI’s updated forecast numbers, which were issued last week, are well above the 1950-2009 average of 10 named storms, six hurricanes and three intense hurricanes and slightly above the more recent 1995-2009 average of 14 named storms, eight hurricanes and four intense hurricanes. Nine named storms formed during 2009, including three hurricanes, two of them intense.

While the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season — which began June 1 — did not produce a named storm in its first three weeks, tropical activity was picking up as the weekend began. The National Weather Service’s National Hurricane Center (NHC) said Friday that there was an 80% chance that a low pressure area centered between the northeast coast of Honduras and Grand Cayman could become a tropical cyclone over the weekend. The system was forecast to move slowly toward the west-northwest and reach the Yucatan peninsula in a day or two. “All interests in the northwestern Caribbean sea and Yucatan should monitor the progress of this system,” NHC said Friday afternoon. At the same time, a large but disorganized area of cloudiness and showers centered just east of the northern Leeward Islands, which was associated with a tropical wave interacting with an upper level trough, was expected to develop slowly, if at all, and had little chance of becoming a tropical cyclone, NHC said.

While an active hurricane season in the GOM could certainly impact natural gas supply, it likely would not be as significant of a blow as in the past thanks to new shale drilling technology that is unlocking onshore gas reserves around the country. Approximately 10% of U.S. natural gas production comes from the GOM.

“Water temperatures are already at levels more typical of August,” WSI seasonal forecaster Todd Crawford said. “So it’s no surprise we’re seeing historically unusual tropical wave development in the eastern Atlantic so early in the season. All systems are go for the upcoming season; and we’ve increased our numbers further to reflect the persistence of the incredibly favorable conditions. At this time, a season approaching the record levels of 2005 is not out of the question at all.”

In a preliminary forecast issued in January WSI called for 13 named storms, including seven hurricanes, with three of them intense, forming this year (see NGI, Feb. 1). In April WSI increased its forecast to include 16 named storms, including nine hurricanes, five of them intense (see NGI, April 26) and last month it increased its forecast to 18 named storms, including 10 hurricanes, five of them intense (see NGI, May 31).

The coastal United States from North Carolina’s Outer Banks north to Maine is twice as likely as normal to be hit by a hurricane this year, according to the WSI forecast.

While the 2009 season was the quietest in more than a decade, “the primary drivers for tropical activity have sharply reversed course this year and everything is in place for an incredibly active season,” Crawford said. “The El Nino event has vanished completely, resulting in a decrease in western tropical Pacific convection and a concomitant decrease in the vertical wind shear that typically acts as a detriment to tropical Atlantic development. More importantly, however, eastern and central tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures are currently at record warm levels for June, even warmer than the freakishly active season of 2005.”

A total of 26 named storms, including 14 hurricanes and seven intense hurricanes, among them hurricanes Katrina and Rita, wreaked havoc on the oil and natural gas industry, onshore and in the Gulf of Mexico (GOM), during the 2005 season (see NGI, Dec. 12, 2005).

The consensus forecast for the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season points decidedly towards an unusually active season. Colorado State University (CSU) forecasters have said they expect a “very active” season, with 18 named storms, including 10 hurricanes, five of them intense, forming before the season ends Nov. 30 (see NGI, June 7). The probability of a major hurricane making landfall along the U.S. coastline this year is 76% compared with the last-century average of 52%, according to the CSU forecast. There is a 65% probability of at least one major hurricane tracking into the Caribbean this year and a 51% probability of at least one major hurricane making landfall on the Gulf Coast between the Florida Panhandle and Brownsville, TX, CSU said.

Accuweather.com Chief Long-Term Meteorologist Joe Bastardi has said rapid GOM warming and the collapsing El Nino pattern could create 16-18 named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season, which would make 2010 one of the most active seasons on record (see NGI, May 24). Bastardi’s forecast team expects one or two tropical storms to form by early July and a total of at least six storms to impact the U.S. coastline before the season ends Nov. 30.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center said it expects the 2010 season to be “active to extremely active,” with 14-23 named storms, including eight to 14 hurricanes, three to seven of them intense. NOAA said the probability of multiple hurricane strikes in the United States and in the region around the Caribbean increases sharply with exceptionally active seasons. All above-normal hurricane seasons in the past have produced at least one named storm in the GOM and 95% of those seasons have produced at least two named storms in the GOM, NOAA said.

The new La Nina event — the cooling of ocean surface temperatures off the western coast of South America — and other conditions are also likely to bring warmer-than-normal temperatures to much of the United States through September, according to the latest seasonal forecast from Andover, MA-based WSI.

Portions of the central and northern Plains will be spared the unusually warm weather, according to Crawford, who said the rapidly evolving La Nina indicates more heat across the northern United States as the summer progresses.

“In the Atlantic, record warm ocean temperatures also favor warmer-than-normal temperatures across a majority of the U.S.,” Crawford said. “On the other hand, near-record soil moisture levels across parts of the central and northern Plains, along with a lack of any significant drought conditions in the U.S., will temper the overall magnitude of the heat. By early July, we expect heat to spread across most of the western U.S. and to persist across the Southeast, while relatively cooler temperatures persist across the north-central and northeastern U.S. By August and September, we expect the heat to become more widespread across the northern U.S.

“For the July-September period as a whole, we are forecasting 836 population-weighted cooling degree days, 7-8% more than last year and about 10% more than the 1971-2000 mean.”

The WSI forecast for July calls for cooler-than-normal temperatures in the Northeast and North Central areas, with warmer-than-normal temperatures dominating the rest of the country.

“Gas demand from the power sector for cooling will likely be strong in all regions except for the Northeast and North Central areas,” Energy Security Analysis Inc. (ESAI) Director of Power and Gas Paul Flemming said in a statement issued in conjunction with WSI’s outlook. “Warmer expectations in the Southwest, the Rockies and Texas for July indicates higher probabilities of heat events, which would drive high demand for both gas and power in these regions.”

Warmer-than-normal temperatures will move into the Northeast in August, while the Southeast will become cooler than normal and much of the central United States will experience near-normal temperatures, WSI said. By August, WSI expects warmer-than-normal temperatures to be spread across all of the country except the Southeast, which will see cooler-than-normal temperatures.

“Gas demand for cooling should be strong in the Northeast and Midwest and overall demand should be strong during September relative to normal conditions. Power prices in the Northeast markets could continue to be volatile in September due to the high chance of late summer heat events,” Flemming said.

Energy analysts last week questioned whether the latest gas price gains harken the beginning of a summer price rally sparked by early summer heat (see related story).

Based on the forecasts for this summer, it’s going to be a scorcher, with demand on energy also in full force, according to Bastardi. Between Interstate 80 and Interstate 20 from the Rockies eastward, temperatures are forecast to hold between the mid 80s and low 90s through mid-July. Humidity and “uncomfortable” heat also are expected to cover the Great Lakes and most of the Northeast, and south from Interstate 20 to the Gulf Coast through the same period. Temperatures are forecast to be “slightly above normal,” in the low 80s in the Northeast and in the 90s across the South, Bastardi said.

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