Temperature forecasts for the next three months (July-September) show above normal heat continuing in California, the Southwest, Rockies and Midwest but dissipating to below normal levels in the Northeast, Pacific Northwest, the southern Plains, Texas and the Southeast, according to WSI Corp.’s end-of-June update to its seasonal forecast.

Energy Security Analysis Inc. (ESAI), a consulting firm based in Wakefield, MA, noted that the WSI forecast means the reliability and availability of Midwest coal and nuclear units and Southwestern/California gas-fired plants and gas supply will be tested this summer. “The above-normal temperatures imply heavier gas demand [in the West]. That may be balanced by the below-normal temperatures forecast for the Northeast and Southeast, regions whose dependence on gas-fired generation also influences gas demand,” ESAI consultants said. “The below-normal temperatures forecast for the Northeast may also provide some relief to regions with high loads and limited supply, such as Southwest Connecticut and New York City.”

In July, above-normal temperatures will be the rule for most of the western half of the United States, WSI Corp. said, with the exception of the Pacific Northwest. Warmer-than-normal temperatures are also expected in the Great Lakes states. Cooler-than-normal temperatures are expected in the Pacific Northwest, southern Plains, Southeast, Ohio Valley, and Northeast.

In August, warmer-than-normal temperatures will again be the rule in the Southwest, California, Pacific Northwest, Rockies, northern and central Plains, Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, and Mid-Atlantic states. Temperatures will be below-normal in the Gulf Coast states, the Northeast, and parts of the Southeast.

In September, cooler temperatures will become more widespread, with above-normal temperatures confined to the Southwest, California, and central and southern Rockies. Cooler-than-normal temperatures will be the rule elsewhere, with the largest temperature anomalies expected in the northern Plains states.

WSI seasonal forecaster Todd Crawford said the expectation of cooler-than-normal temperatures in the Pacific Northwest and Florida this summer is different from the National Weather Service outlook, in which above-normal temperatures are predicted. He said WSI’s three-month seasonal forecasts have been accurate for 10 out of the last 16 periods.

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