WSI Corp.’s weather forecast for February to April calls for warmer-than-normal temperatures in most of the western half of the country (e.g., Phoenix, Seattle, Denver, Minneapolis, Dallas, Kansas City) and the Southeast (e.g., Atlanta, Raleigh, Miami), but cooler-than-normal temperatures are expected in the Northeast and Great Lakes regions (e.g., Chicago, Cleveland, New York, Boston, Philadelphia, Washington), and the major cities along the California coast (e.g., Los Angeles, San Francisco).

Meteorologists at WSI said in February cooler-than-normal temperatures should be expected in the Northeast and Great Lakes states and above-normal temperatures should be expected for the western half of the United States and the Southeast. Temperatures are expected to be especially warm in the Southwest.

In March, warmer-than-normal temperatures will encompass most of the country, with the exception of the major cities along the Pacific Coast. Again, the largest positive temperature anomalies will be found in the Southwest and Texas. And in April, WSI experts expect cooler-than-normal temperatures in the eastern half of the United States, especially in the Northeast, with above-normal temperatures across most of the western half of the country, with the exception of the cities along the Pacific Coast.

“The expectation of cooler-than-normal temperatures in the major cities in the Northeast is different from the outlook [by the National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center] in which no forecast was given,” said WSI forecaster Todd Crawford. “This forecast is a radical departure from the very warm temperatures experienced during the last few months. We do agree with CPC, however, in that we expect warmer-than-normal temperatures in the Southwest.”

WSI was on target in its predictions of a warm November, December, and January in the eastern half of the country and in the United States as a whole.

The latest WSI forecast presents a mixed bag for Northeast power markets over the next few months. Consultants at Energy Security Analysis Inc. (ESAI) expect a cooler February to strengthen power prices after a relatively mild January and a bearish natural gas market, as the fuel is generally on the margin for power generation in areas like the New England Power Pool. A warmer March will deflate this strength, but a colder April, combined with the start of generator maintenance season, could stir prices up a bit, the consultants said. The outlook for power prices in more western U.S. areas is not that bullish, with the exception of some urban coastal areas. ESAI expects desert Southwest prices to drop along with weather and load.

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