Headed into 2024, global natural gas prices have seemingly coalesced around a new normal  after a volatile two-year period, but experts warn a tenuous market balance means volatility is likely just around the corner for at least the next year.

While prices for spot LNG and European pipeline volumes are elevated after Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine, they have gradually leveled off from the record highs reached just after the start of the war. Liquefied natural gas benchmarks have continued to edge downward since the start of the year, even as flairs of cold weather and growing global conflicts potentially threaten supply. 

This apparent insulation from the latest headwinds has been thanks in part to milder winter weather over the past two heating seasons and an influx of...