Record production, stout storage and seasonally soft weather-driven demand consistently put downward pressure on natural gas prices in 2023. Analysts expect 2024 to develop into a sequel – barring a sharp reduction in output or an exceptionally hot summer.  

The January natural gas futures contract rolled off the books in the final week of 2023 after settling at $2.619/MMBtu – about $2.00 lower than a year earlier. Physical markets also struggled to find momentum. NGI’s December Bidweek National Avg., for example, came in at $3.325/MMBtu, far from the prior-year average of $8.395 amid robust supplies. 

“Historically speaking, nothing shapes short-term prices more than gas in storage, and the U.S. certainly has plenty of gas in the ground right now,” said NGI’s...