Some may be starting to wonder if it’s a smoke-and-mirrors magic act, but the cash market once again defied what would usually be considered bearish weather fundamentals in continuing to rise at all points Tuesday. It retained substantial prior-day support from June futures having jumped another 17.9 cents Monday, but such positive guidance will be lacking Wednesday after the Nymex contract retreated by 11 cents Tuesday (see related story).

Midcontinent and South Texas points tended to set the pace in gains ranging from about a nickel to about 35 cents. Overall the increases were fairly evenly distributed among geographic market areas.

Florida Gas Transmission kept an Overage Alert Day in effect through at least its fourth day Tuesday due to forecasts of 90s temperatures in Florida. The Florida citygate realized Tuesday’s biggest uptick, while Florida Gas Zones 2 and 3 were up about 20 cents and 15 cents, respectively.

The only other major hot spot is the desert Southwest, where Phoenix-area peaks around 100 degrees helped give substantive boosts to numbers in the San Juan and Permian basins. The Permian/Waha market also benefited from muggy conditions starting to approach 90 in much of the intrastate Texas market.

Otherwise it was difficult to give weather much credit for keeping the cash market firm. Not counting Alaska and the upper reaches of Canada, freezing lows have vanished from North American forecasts. And outside Florida the eastern half of the South is currently failing to reach highs in the 80s, which is quite mild for the area.

Similarly moderate to cool conditions are prevailing across the northern half of the U.S. and southern Canada.

Weather certainly isn’t the story in this recent spot price run-up, a Gulf Coast producer said. The South has yet to build up any major amount of air conditioning load, he said, and from his vantage point the northern market areas are looking pretty comfortable these days.

The fundamentals say spot prices should not have been going where they have since last Thursday, the producer continued. He said he couldn’t put a finger on the source of the market’s strength, but he did know that some demand was coming from utilities buying gas to “front-load” their storage accounts early in the season. He added that he also was hearing the talk Monday about growing sentiment that the economic slide may be bottoming out, and acknowledged that might be contributing to the newfound gas bullishness.

The National Weather Service predicts above-normal temperatures during the May 11-15 workweek everywhere south of a line running westward from northern Virginia to the upper edges of Indiana and Illinois, then curving slightly through the southern ends of Iowa and Nebraska into the central Rockies to central California. The only areas where the agency looks for below-normal readings is in upper Maine and all of Montana along with northern Idaho, the eastern half of Washington state and the western end of North Dakota.

Stephen Smith of Stephen Smith Energy Associates said he projects an 86 Bcf build in storage to be reported for the week ending May 1. That was up from a prior estimate of 80 Bcf, he said. Meanwhile, Citi Futures Perspective’s Tim Evans is looking for three straight additions of 100 Bcf each in the weeks ending May 1, May 8 and May 15.

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