Sections of the market were moving in different price directions again Friday, a day after all points were united in getting crushed. The West and Midcontinent/Midwest, which can expect some heating load as this week begins, saw quotes rise by as much as 60 cents. But the Gulf Coast and Northeast, where temperatures are expected to remain unseasonably mild, recorded losses at most points that ranged to nearly 40 cents.

The West will be experiencing merely a continuation of existing cold and winter storms that has dominated the weather picture in its northern half for some time now. The Midwest entered the weekend with mild conditions, but a cold front will have the area 15 to 20 degrees cooler by Monday, The Weather Channel said. The expected heating demand there helped boost numbers in its primary supply area, the Midcontinent.

However, unusually mild October temperatures for most of the Northeast and South were expected to carry over into early November. That, a weakening screen the day before and the perception that little space remains for storage injections were chiefly responsible for Northeast citygates and Gulf Coast points staying in a softening trend in most cases.

All deals done Friday were for Monday-only flows, since the market had traded through the end of October on Thursday.

“As soon as this election is over, I think prices will crash,” said a Gulf Coast trader who indexed all of her November baseload. There’s no weather demand in her market areas going into November, she continued, and the dearth of available storage space will take away a potential home for excess supplies. “We had a fairly easy time moving gas in the intrastate Texas market this month [October] because of air conditioning load, but that’s going away [this] week.

The trader noted having had to plan Thursday for a 25-hour gas day Saturday because of the change from Daylight Saving Time. Discussing trading for Monday-only flows on Friday, she said she didn’t like it when flow periods are altered like that because of a month-to-month transition connected to a weekend, adding that there seemed to be more risk of running an imbalance on the pipelines.

On the adjustment of deal periods Thursday and Friday, a Midcontinent marketer felt it was harder to shift the usual mindset Thursday “and realize you’re already trading through the weekend” than it was Friday to make deals for Monday only. It was warm Friday in his area, but this week will be colder, he said. However, it will be about normal for the start of November, he added.

Several sources said it was difficult to handicap November first-of-month indexes because the huge price movement up and down on Tuesday and Wednesday. But the marketer expected indexes to be towards the high end of their trading ranges, saying he perceived most bidweek business as getting done on the first two days of last week when prices were strongest.

He said his company sees the Mississippi River as a kind of demarcation line in geographical bidweek trading tendencies. West of the Mississippi sees more fixed pricing and often gets done earlier, while east of the Mississippi more deals are done later and are more basis oriented, he said. However, he noted that “we also lump Chicago into the western pool” in that regard.

The marketer pointed out a shift from the previous month in geographic swing market trends. In September the East was the strongest region pricewise, he said, but during October it has been western prices that have held up more firmly, thanks to cold weather.

The PG&E citygate was among Friday’s strongest points with an increase of about 45 cents after the utility lifted a high-inventory OFO and despite the prospect of storage injections being restricted this week due to Saturday’s start of a “quiet period” at PG&E’s McDonald Island facility (see Daily GPI, Oct. 15).

The week ended with Minerals Management Service saying Gulf of Mexico shut-ins had dwindled further to 1,199.08 MMcf/d, a reduction of 78 MMcf/d from the day before and 322.5 MMcf/d less than on the previous Friday. The agency’s cumulative total of deferred production since Sept. 11 reached 106.956 Bcf last Friday, or 2.404% of yearly Gulf production.

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