Following Thursday’s price surge that seemed to many to have no visible means of support, Friday’s numbers were in retreat nearly across the board. A smidgen of flatness in the Rockies belied overall softness that saw declines ranging from about a nickel to nearly half a dollar. Most were in the range of 10-30 cents.

“It looks like we’re going to have a brown Christmas,” said an Upper Midwest marketer, providing an anecdotal clue about why Thursday’s bullishness could not be sustained. Although snow and cold were expected to last into the weekend in the Northeast, most regions were due for moderating trends that are expected to persist this week.

There were “scattered snow flurries as we speak,” the marketer continued, “but Monday and Tuesday are supposed to be 44 degrees and rain continuing through [this] week, so I’m looking for further price declines after the weekend.”

Friday’s price weakness “was great for [storage] injection spreads if you could find the space” in which to stow the gas, a Midcontinent-based trader said. His explanation for Thursday’s spikes: “Nobody was selling.”

One source thought he may have found out why prices ran up Thursday, finding it “rather impressive” to visit the weather.com web site (The Weather Channel) Friday morning and watch a long string of coast-to-coast winter storm alerts scroll by. In alphabetic sequence TWC announced alerts for Kentucky, Maryland, Michigan, Montana, North Carolina, Ohio, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, Virginia, Washington, West Virginia and Wyoming.

Sonat kept a Type 6 OFO in place for Saturday, but as of Friday it was “too close to call” whether one for short imbalances would be issued for Sunday, the pipeline said. It considered it unlikely that an OFO would be needed for either long or short imbalances Monday. Florida Gas Transmission still had an Overage Alert Day in effect Friday, but FGT doesn’t declare them until the morning they go into effect, so it was unknown Friday how long that OFO-like restriction would continue.

Looking ahead, a Chicago trader said citygate basis for January is weakening. He reported hearing basis of plus 5 cents Friday, and said that had dropped off from plus 13-14 cents in the previous week. “Even a few plus 2 [cents] bids” were starting to surface from some buyers, he said.

This could be one of the smallest and quietest bidweeks ever, the trader went on. “Our president asked the staff this morning how it was shaping up, and most said they weren’t hearing much trading interest at all.” A lot of marketers are saying they’re already done for January and will just be “flipping around” small amounts of gas through the end of December, he said. This Tuesday might be very busy for bidweek activity because so many will be out till year-end after that, he added; other than that, most January deals will get done Dec. 29-30 because the two Wednesdays (Christmas Eve and New Year’s Eve) will be total duds.

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