Despite a precipitous slide in global natural gas prices over the last year and easing demand, buyers in Europe and Asia are likely to face a tighter market for years to come.

For much of the week, liquefied natural gas to Asia held under $13/MMBtu while the prompt Dutch Title Transfer Facility moved closer to $14/MMBtu. European LNG prices have now declined more than 40% year/year, while April looks poised to set a record for imports to the region.

The U.S. benchmark Henry Hub, meanwhile, has hovered around $2/MMBtu this month, a level not seen since the height of the pandemic in 2020. Mexico’s IPGN monthly gas price, for its part, averaged $2.735/MMBtu in March, the first time it has dropped below $3.00 since September 2020.

International gas market expert Ira Joseph,...