Markets

Traders of physical natural gas for Friday delivery scurried to get their deals done Thursday ahead of the release of Energy Information Administration (EIA) storage figures, and prices inched lower. Prices in the Mid-Atlantic, however, managed gains as near-term weather forecasts called for cooler temperatures going into the weekend. The NGI National Spot Gas Average fell 2 cents to $3.06.

March natural gas opened about 6 cents higher Wednesday morning as weather forecasts reversed the recent trend of ever milder conditions going forward. Overnight oil markets rose.

Analysts’ estimates on where natural gas storage inventories will wind up come March 31 — the end of the traditional withdrawal season — range widely anywhere from around 1.4 Tcf to 2 Tcf as Mother Nature continues to wreak havoc on an otherwise structurally supported market. But all agree that inventories will not reach the record-setting levels of 2016.

The natural gas trading landscape is shaping up to be a tale of two markets: a soft near-term February characterized by uninspired bidweek prices offset by analyst predictions of an improved 2017 and 2018.

Both physical traders for Thursday natural gas and futures traders got a reprieve Wednesday from two days of double-digit declines as near-term weather trends turned cooler, and overnight weather models showed cooling in the more deferred time frames.

Natural Gas Intelligence (NGI) price indexes, which have included Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) Data since 2008, currently have the most robust base of volumes and deals of any published natural gas price indexes available (see charts).

For the second day in a row physical and financial natural gas values tumbled to weather-driven double-digit declines.

March natural gas is set to open 6 cents lower Tuesday morning at $3.17 as overnight near-term weather models showed significantly warmer conditions in eastern energy markets. Overnight oil markets rose.

March natural gas is expected to open 10 cents lower Monday morning at $3.26 as near-term weather forecasts could only come up with transient cold patterns affecting major eastern energy markets. Overnight oil markets weakened.