Weakness

Cash prices were mixed on Friday with many points off 5-15 cents while those at some other locations were up 2-8 cents based on continuing uncertainty regarding Hurricane Ivan’s projected path and some buying interest at what might be deemed attractive price levels. On Friday, prices at many locations were still down 50-60 cents from September bidweek levels.

Thursday’s hint that major weakness in spot prices could be in store played out in spades Friday. Plunges of close to half a dollar were common as the cash market bowed under the oppression of what little weather load it could find fading away in several regions, a day-earlier screen dive that continued Friday, a bearish storage report, Thursday’s news of storage injection opportunities declining further, and of course the extra loss of industrial load during a long holiday weekend.

The current weakness in natural gas prices and the commodity’s de-linking from crude oil is due to more than just a cool summer, according to a New York, NY-based independent research firm.

The current weakness in natural gas prices and the commodity’s de-linking from crude oil is due to more than just a cool summer, according to a New York, NY-based independent research firm.

Modest upticks in cash prices continued to prevail Thursday, but signs of a weakening market were evident. None of the gains were greater than 7-8 cents, and more points were seeing either flatness or lower numbers. The hot weather in the South and West that had lent a modicum of support to Wednesday’s prices was waning a bit, and the 7.2-cent screen gain on Wednesday may have been the only thing averting overall softness Thursday.

For the cash gas market, apparently the moderate screen weakness on Wednesday trumped a small increase in hot weather Thursday. Prices for Friday flow ranged from flat or slightly higher at some points in the West to down nearly 20 cents.

Instead of “following the screen” strength of the previous few days, cash prices found weak fundamentals to be a more compelling influence Friday. Quotes dropped across the board by anywhere from a little more than a nickel to more than 40 cents. The largest declines tended to cluster in the West and Northeast, while most of the smallest ones were in the Gulf Coast.

Prices made rebounds across the board Monday from the weakness of the long weekend market. Traders cited expectations of hotter weather, a big nuclear outage in the West and screen firmness Thursday that continued Monday as factors in the rally. One suggested the initial Gulf of Mexico activity in the still-young Atlantic hurricane season may have added a small psychological boost.

This week’s market started out looking suspiciously like the one preceding it, with prices rebounding solidly Monday from weekend softening. But a couple of sources doubted that last week’s run of rising prices right on through to till the weekend arrived will be repeated, particularly with a holiday weekend approaching.