Viswanath

Forget about $3/Mcf natural gas prices anytime this year because the U.S. gas surplus is growing and the chances of substantial increases in demand from power generators are fading. That's the quick sketch drawn Wednesday by Teri Viswanath, senior natural gas analyst at BNP Paribas, the global institutional banker.

U.S. natural gas prices could face pressure at the end of the heating season due to a lack of cold weather, but growing industrial demand and a surge in power plant retirements could offer some relief later in the year, a BNP Paribas analyst said Tuesday.

Too much natural gas supply and less summer demand than expected have led BNP Paribas to reduce the outlook for third quarter prices to $4.05/Mcf, down from a forecast of issued earlier this month of $4.55.

U.S. winter weather is playing a much bigger role in natural gas balances today because it is driving the call on marginal production and hence, price changes, the senior natural gas strategist for BNP Paribas said Friday.

Barring unexpectedly cold weather this winter, rising natural gas production will prevent prices from eclipsing $4/MMBtu, but an inventory deficit is likely to reemerge by next summer, prompting a price recovery, according to BNP Paribas’ Teri Viswanath, director of commodity strategy.

Demand between now and 2015 will prop up natural gas prices, even with a backlog of drilled wells awaiting connection, and from 2016 to 2018 a “dramatic structural increase” in demand could outpace supply additions and send gas prices to as high as $6.00/MMBtu, BNP Paribas’ Teri Viswanath, director of commodity strategy, said Friday.