Relatively

The most significant futures event during the relatively quiet holiday week was the continuing rise in gas futures on Thursday despite an unexpected 20 Bcf storage injection reported by the Energy Information Administration. After the May futures contract posted less than a one-cent change for both Monday and Tuesday, the contract found upward momentum on Wednesday and Thursday, settling up a little more than 6 cents each day.

With few bastions of relatively mild temperatures left outside the Florida peninsula, South Texas and the southern reaches of Arizona and California, all points were united Tuesday in realizing moderate to large price gains. Transco Zone 6-New York City notched a new weekly peak of $19 in leading most Northeast citygates in triple-digit spikes as the region hunkered down for yet another nor’easter barrage.

After increasing only marginally for the past several years, U.S. demand for natural gas is “likely to rise sharply in the next 10 years” as a series of gas-fired power plants come on line, according to Moody’s Investors Service.

After increasing only marginally for the past several years, U.S. demand for natural gas is “likely to rise sharply in the next 10 years” as a series of gas-fired power plants come on line, according to Moody’s Investors Service.

Relatively light air conditioning load outside the West kept cash prices in a general decline Thursday, although nearly all drops were less than a dime and many points were flat or managed tiny gains. A bearish Nymex response to the storage report, prospects for continued weakness in weather fundamentals and the typical loss of industrial demand over a weekend are likely to have quotes falling again Friday, sources said.

California officials announced Friday the state has reworked a relatively small 50 MW, $209 million power deal with Morgan Stanley that reduces its volumes and price, along with various terms, equating to a $41 million savings to the state and an option to purchase future natural gas tied to the electricity contract at indexed prices.

Breaking the string of triple-digit weekly storage refills at four, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) Thursday morning announced a 97 Bcf injection for the week ending June 27. Natural gas futures prices, which were already in the process of a cautious short-covering rally, used the smaller-than-expected refill as a springboard to higher levels. But after a quick spike to an intra-day high at $5.36, the August contract was hit with a steady barrage of selling late Thursday morning and early afternoon. August closed mixed at $5.226, 2.7 cents higher in Thursday’s holiday-abbreviated trading session.

Tropical Storm Bill was leaving relatively little shut-in offshore production in its wake Monday afternoon as it moved over the Louisiana coast. Meanwhile, flatness at the Chicago citygate and Dawn were the only significant exceptions in an overall stronger launch of the July aftermarket. Otherwise, points ranged from up about a nickel to nearly 40 cents higher. A majority of the gains were in the range of 10-20 cents.

Pacific Gas & Electric declared a systemwide Stage 2 high-inventory OFO for Friday. It carried a relatively loose positive imbalance tolerance of 9% and penalties of $1/Dth.