Relatively

Looking beyond what was expected to be relatively mild weekend weather to the return of cooler conditions in the first half of this week in northern market areas, traders moved prices higher Friday at a solid majority of points to get the April aftermarket off to a moderately strong start. However, one source thought buying for storage injections was a more potent factor than temperature forecasts in the overall market strength.

With a still relatively short history of natural gas use in the region, the Pacific Northwest has limited gas pipeline options, but the situation may change now that several liquefied natural gas (LNG) terminals have been proposed for Oregon’s Pacific Coast and Columbia River banks. Proponents outlined two of the major new pipeline proposals — Palomar and Pacific Connector — at the LDC Forum: Rockies & West conference in Los Angeles Tuesday and Wednesday.

Near-month gas futures came out of the gate relatively strong Monday and posted their daily high of $6.780 just after 1 p.m., but the contract succumbed to hard selling pressure immediately after the daily high and proceeded to drop more than 25 cents in just a few minutes of trading. September ended the day down 10.7 cents at $6.624. October was off 12.1 cents to $6.730, and December lost a quarter to end at $10.170.

Rising temperatures in many areas and relatively attractive gas prices continued to boost gas demand for power generation Tuesday, prompting additional gains of 10-40 cents in the cash market. An early run-up in futures also helped continue the cash rally but the near-month futures contract ended up losing nearly all of what it had gained by the end of trading Tuesday afternoon.

With air conditioning load staying on the relatively light side outside the desert Southwest, a 33.9-cent screen drop on Wednesday providing highly negative guidance, continued concerns over storage injection space dwindling quickly, and excess supply issues in the West, it was hardly surprising when the cash market experienced double-digit drops across the board Thursday.

The Department of Transportation (DOT) has granted waivers to three proposed or relatively new interstate natural gas pipelines that would allow them to operate at a higher maximum allowable operating pressure (MAOP) in low-density areas along their routes — a move that would clear the way for more gas to flow through the systems.

Although they won’t stay that way, natural gas prices have been relatively low in recent weeks in Northern California — in the $6/MMBtu area — because the region has been over-saturated with rain, causing Pacific Gas and Electric Co. to call on more hydroelectric supplies and use less gas, according to Peter Koszalka, PG&E’s utility manager of electric fuels.

March natural gas futures traded within a relatively quiet 30-cent range Tuesday before settling at $9.316, down 7.3 cents from Monday. The interesting thing about the otherwise mundane session was that the market saw almost no correction to Monday’s 88.2-cent gain.

Putting in a relatively quiet trading session, February natural gas futures, which expires Friday, opened 13.2 cents lower Wednesday at $8.550 and kept within a tight 19-cent trading range between $8.420 and $8.610 on the day before closing at $8.460, down 22.2 cents.