Punch

The final four months of the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season are likely to pack a punch for the Gulf of Mexico and the U.S. coastline, according to forecasters at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association (NOAA), who on Thursday released an updated forecast calling for a 90% chance of an above normal season.

Not content with the prior session’s punch below the psychological $3 price level to a seven-year low, the bearish natural gas futures movement found follow-through on Friday to notch a new low for the move at $2.776 before closing out the day at $2.804, down 14.1 cents from Thursday and 43.4 cents lower than the previous week’s finish.

Following the one-two bearish punch Thursday of an upward revision in natural gas storage levels and an unexpected 16 Bcf injection for the week ended Nov. 14, December natural gas futures were on the rebound Friday, reaching a high of $6.548 before closing at $6.480, up 16.4 cents from Thursday’s close and 16.8 cents higher than the previous week’s finish.

The cash market decided to ignore the slow pace of offshore production recovery from the one-two punch of hurricanes Gustav and Ike and instead focused on the overall lack of weather-based demand for those missing supplies Friday. Abetted by the previous day’s 28.9-cent decline in October futures and the weekend dropoff of industrial load, the weakness of weather fundamentals drove all but a few Texas points lower. Just as there were quite a few triple-digit increases on Thursday, several points saw drops of about a dollar or more Friday.

“Storm hype” just doesn’t seem to have the old price punch it used to. For the second week in a row the industry is seeing prices get substantially softer even as a hurricane heads into the Gulf of Mexico (GOM) production area. To be sure, the fact that the projected track of Hurricane Ike had been shifted more to the south — and thus farther from offshore infrastructure — was a major factor in prices dropping across the board Tuesday.

The embattled Islander East Pipeline took another punch in the stomach last Wednesday when a federal appellate court in New York affirmed a lower court’s decision that blocks the Connecticut-to-Long Island project from going forward.

The embattled Islander East Pipeline got another punch in the stomach Wednesday when a federal appellate court in New York affirmed a lower court’s decision that blocks the Connecticut-to-Long Island project from going forward.

Even a larger than expected storage withdrawal combined with the forecasted one-two punch of wintry Northeast storms weren’t enough to keep bullish momentum alive Thursday as January natural gas futures ended up closing 21.5 cents lower at $7.193, correcting much of Wednesday’s 32.3-cent spike.

It appears that no matter how hard futures bulls try to punch through resistance at $8, they will continue to meet with failure until some other piece of bullish fundamental news — whether it be summer heat or hurricanes — is introduced into the equation. June natural gas futures recorded a $8.110 high Monday before retreating to close at $7.952, up 5.3 cents on the day.