Punch

Thanks to the one-two punch of a much-below-expectations storage injection report and somewhat premature winter weather that was producing near-blizzard conditions in parts of the Upper Plains and Upper Midwest, spot prices spiked intensely Thursday for gains in excess of 40 cents nearly across the board.

Following the example set forth by the natural gas futures market, cash prices started strong Tuesday only to fizzle late in the morning as an unimpressive tropical storm brought spring rains and cooling temperatures to the Gulf and southeastern states. Tropical Storm Allison, the first tropical storm of the season, formed yesterday in the northwestern Gulf of Mexico but did little to slow the late declines in both cash and futures markets. Although prices at many locations were up initially yesterday, and posted average daily increases of a dime or more in some locations, sources agreed those prices will come under downward pressure today.

After failing to punch through last Wednesday’s high, natural gas futures traded mostly sideways Monday, as neither bull nor bear could influence prices. At the closing bell, the May contract was 0.3 cents weaker at $5.125.

After failing to punch through Wednesday’s $6.80 low earlyyesterday, natural gas futures shuffled higher Thursday as traderscovered shorts following a five-day price slide. Over that period,the February contract lost nearly $3 or 30% of its value to closeat $6.909 Wednesday afternoon. February closed at $7.136 yesterday,up 22.7 cents for the session.

After being thwarted in repeated attempts to punch through the$4.23 level during the first hour of trading, natural gas bullsturned in their horns Friday, giving way to light sellingthroughout the rest of the session. Limited to an extremely tight,7-cent range for the day, the August contract slipped 1.6 cents tofinish the week at $4.15.

Futures got crushed again yesterday. After settling at $2.737,down 8.8 cents on the day, the October contract plunged to the mid$2.60s during the after hours Nymex Access trading session,following what was perceived to be a very bearish gas storagereport by the American Gas Association. Just one week ago, theOctober contract reached a high of $3.15/MMBtu.

Propelled by a tropical depression swirling in the Bay ofCampeche and concerns of yet another bullish storage report,natural gas futures spiraled higher yesterday as traders coveredshort positions. That buying interest pushed the September contractto $2.805 — the highest mark for a spot month contract sinceDecember of 1997 — before settling at $2.792 for the session.

Hurricane Georges continued along a path yesterday that revealeda stunning possibility that the Gulf of Mexico could be paid afifth unwelcome visit by a named storm this hurricane season,making 1998 one of the most active in recent memory. And therestill are more than two entire months left for mother nature tobrew up even more trouble. Two more tropical storms are growing inintensity right behind Georges.