Projections

Coming in just under most projections, the 80 Bcf storage injection for the week ended May 26 pushed the July natural gas futures contract to a high of $6.725 in afternoon trading. However, the contract wasn’t able to hold onto a majority of its gains as it sloped lower late to close at $6.448, up 6.4 cents on the day.

Coming in firmly below industry projections, the 53 Bcf weekly storage injection reported by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) Thursday for the week ended April 28 caught traders off guard and triggered an early futures rally. June natural gas hit a high of $6.990 late in the session before settling at $6.906, up an even 30 cents on the day.

Coming in lower than most industry projections, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported Thursday morning that 19 Bcf was added to underground storage for the week ended April 7. Working from the smaller than expected injection, strength in the petroleum markets and thin volumes due to Passover, May natural gas futures pushed higher on Thursday to finish the week at $7.135, up 32.7 cents on the day and 39.2 cents higher than the close of the previous week.

Investment banker Jefferies & Co. Inc. has raised its projections for 2005 and 2006 Nymex natural gas prices to $7.75/Mcf and $7/Mcf from its previous estimates of $6.80/Mcf and $6.20/Mcf, respectively, in response to the reported damage to energy facilities along the Gulf coast as a result of Hurricane Katrina last week.

Cash prices recorded moderate rallies at most points Friday as revised tracking projections for a much strengthened Hurricane Katrina had the storm approaching more closely to the eastern end of Gulf of Mexico (GOM) production operations than had been anticipated Thursday. But Florida Gas Transmission (FGT) Zone 3, which would be highly susceptible to the impact of Katrina shut-ins, shot up more than $3 on average with peak quotes of $14 being reported.

Just when some producers were getting their hopes up about Hurricane Emily’s route, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) changed its projections for landfall to just south of Brownsville, TX, by Tuesday night or early Wednesday morning (July 20). Producers are likely to spend a third week in a row evacuating offshore personnel and possibly shutting in some production in the vicinity of the hurricane.

With May natural gas futures prices comfortably trading above $7/MMBtu, some analysts and investment houses are revising some of their projections for the energy industry in 2005. Last week, analysts with Merrill Lynch released their latest commentary, in which they revised commodity price estimates as well as exploration and production (E&P) company earnings estimates.

With May natural gas futures prices comfortably trading above $7/MMBtu, some analyst and investment houses are revising some of their projections for the energy industry in 2005. On Tuesday, analysts with Merrill Lynch released their latest commentary, in which they revised commodity price estimates as well as exploration and production (E&P) company earnings estimates.

At the same time that supply projections go up in Canada’s chief natural gas-producing province, the demand side of the Alberta market is going on a diet. Weaning plants partly or entirely off gas is a feature of all the latest entries into the lineup of oilsands projects, the biggest and fastest-growing element of industrial fuel demand in Alberta, and also all Canada.